***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Testing is one of the reasons why we are watching Korean baseball on espn instead of American .

You could fit S.Korea within Missouri.

And I haven't checked on their baseball league, but I wouldn't be surprised if you could fit the entire enterprise on a college campus.

And the testing still seems to have more problems with efficacy than procurement.

Oh, and I don't watch Korean baseball, barely watch American unless I can lounge in a stadium seat.

[KChiefs1]

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

Testing is one of the reasons why we are watching Korean baseball on espn instead of American .

Here we go again.......

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by Bowser

So have we moved on from worrying about overwhelming the hospitals and health care system to now worrying about how everyone is going to catch this? Because I basically assumed everyone understood they are indeed going to catch this at some point.

Couple more weeks and we should know more.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

I'm not going to belabor this, because I just don't have the passion to put up with people much anymore.

But I know that that the prevention of overwhelming the system was highly stressed, and the matter of the length of the lockdown was avoided, BECAUSE I ASKED. And I know why it's been evaded, it's speculative and even the speculation hasn't moved from an estimate of months, perhaps more than a year, . . . at least so far as meeting the metrics of 'safe resume' is concerned.

Just don't lie. We [the royal we] mentioned generalities about resumption but we predicated quarantine on avoiding medical services being overwhelmed. And the generalities about resumption are and have always been about avoiding 'when do we come out of a bunker' because we're scared to admit 'not for a good while.'

It was not avoided, the length was not explicitly guaranteed by public health authorities because it was unknown how long it would take to reach the peak. When you have exponential growth of a virus with an unknown seed bed you can't make assumptions as to when you are going to hit the peak, especially when the replication factor and underlying infections are unknown.


And I've said it on here time and time again:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I know this is an anxious time, but the worst thing you can be right now is impatient. If I have a patient getting antibiotics for sepsis, I don't stop the antibiotics whenever their CRP and lactate levels start to drop. All I'm going to do in that case is cause a rebound infection and make things worse, because the therapies I previously used may not as be as effective and the patient will clinically worsen.

We don't just need to get to the peak: we need to get past the peak and then down the slope on the other side so as to avoid another peak that is as bad or worse than the first.

When talking about the need to get the R-effective down more than a month ago:

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If the virus peaks and then declines, the R-effective is less than 1.

From 538:

Moreover, interventions such as social distancing are being undertaken to bring down R, although actions can vary from location to location. The goal, though, is to get R below 1, which means that a disease begins to die out in a population. (It will die out gradually if R is close to 1 and quickly if it’s close to zero, say, 0.2.

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

If you practice enough distancing to lower the effective R0 of the virus to less than one, you will reach a peak sooner with fewer cases because the virus is being transmitted to less than one additional person for every infection, and thus, cannot sustain itself past the incubation and convalescent period.

The fact that this was not presented before it patently false.

[wazu]

Originally Posted by Spott

So no peanuts, but did they at least do the rolls with butter?

Yes. I'm keto so didn't partake, but my oldest gave rave reviews.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

You could fit S.Korea within Missouri.

I understand that and the US did do a decent job with what they had I was just pointing out the benefits of testing , like s Korea an Germany .

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

Couple more weeks and we should know more.

This should be called "The Two Week Virus" because every time you turn around all we here is the peak should happen in 2 weeks, we will know more in 2 weeks, things will start getting better in 2 weeks.....

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by cdcox

This is a really good article about a possible way forward. The Hammer and the Dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Here's a good article that seedy posted in late March that lays out the process we're going through.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I understand that and the US did do a decent job with what they had I was just pointing out the benefits of testing , like s Korea an Germany .

What good does testing do if 5 minutes after I test negative i go to the grocery store and get infected by someone?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What good does testing do if 5 minutes after I test negative i go to the grocery store and get infected by someone?

Because testing might have caught those people who infected the store before they went.

Just catching 1 extra infected person here and there when you have exponential growth makes a difference.

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

You could fit S.Korea within Missouri.

That is true, South Korea is like half the size of Missouri.

Now on the other hand, there are like 50 million people there. There's only about 6 in Missouri. It is way, way, way more dense.

In South Korea there are 1366 people per square mile. In Missouri it's like 87. It's not like South Korea is devoid of challenges. The way this virus behaves. a dense area like that would be a great place for the virus.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What good does testing do if 5 minutes after I test negative i go to the grocery store and get infected by someone?

You keep testing

It’s not a one and done

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by cdcox

This is a really good article about a possible way forward. The Hammer and the Dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

Cliff notes....

[tk13]

I guess it should also be noted that Missouri has more COVID deaths than South Korea despite having 45 million less people.