***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Kiimo]

https://apple.news/AiKa5VGCeTpe7tFd-Cz6zVg


Imagine this being the hill you choose to die on

Face masks, it seems, have become a new fault line in America.
The decision to wear or avoid them in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic signaling whether people have chosen to adhere to public-health guidelines that have taken on political dimensions.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

They did MO's with all the relaxation of stuff and it didn't seem to change a lot? Am I reading that right?

Projected total deaths went up some, and the area of uncertainty is a lot larger.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by TLO

Projected total deaths went up some, and the area of uncertainty is a lot larger.

That's what I as thinking.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by O.city

They did MO's with all the relaxation of stuff and it didn't seem to change a lot? Am I reading that right?

I haven't been paying attention to Missouri, so I'm not sure there. I THINK Colorado went up a bit, but I'd have to go back to the raw data to see what they were predicting a couple weeks ago.

I really wish they had a better way of comparing across model updates. I don't blame them for not building that functionality, but it's kind of a pain to have to go to the CSVs every time to try and see what's changed.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by Kiimosabi

https://apple.news/AiKa5VGCeTpe7tFd-Cz6zVg


Imagine this being the hill you choose to die on

That's the one I have the most trouble understanding. I'm not opposed to "opening things up" as long as we're also agreeing to take the precautions we can. How is wearing a mask not a reasonable compromise?

[Kiimo]

Mah freedoms

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I haven't been paying attention to Missouri, so I'm not sure there. I THINK Colorado went up a bit, but I'd have to go back to the raw data to see what they were predicting a couple weeks ago.

I really wish they had a better way of comparing across model updates. I don't blame them for not building that functionality, but it's kind of a pain to have to go to the CSVs every time to try and see what's changed.

I'm going off memory here, but I believe they bumped up the overall deaths for Colorado,(not by a lot though)

However the level of uncertainty seems to have decreased.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by DaFace

That's the one I have the most trouble understanding. I'm not opposed to "opening things up" as long as we're also agreeing to take the precautions we can. How is wearing a mask not a reasonable compromise?

YUR TAKN MUH LIBERTIES FROM MUH!

[TLO]

It seems Montana is the place to be according to that particular model.

[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's been a while since I took calculus, but not matter how high or how flat a curve is, isnt' the area under it the same?

Love the irony that people are so angry and resentful of the 'stupidity' of others they see in social media, and meanwhile we explained a pandemic response to a populace without taking account of how many and how wide-ranging among them were ignorant of basic calc and trig concepts.

[Kiimo]

Originally Posted by TLO

It seems Montana is the place to be according to that particular model.

As per usual. Retiring to a giant cabin in Big Sky is my current goal.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Baby Lee

Love the irony that people are so angry and resentful of the 'stupidity' of others they see in social media, and meanwhile we explained a pandemic response to a populace without taking account of how many and how wide-ranging among them were ignorant of basic calc and trig concepts.

Just saying. If the people under the curve are the infections, it's not changing if you stretch it out or do it at one time. Atleast I dont' think but calculus was a long time ago.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

It seems Montana is the place to be according to that particular model.

No surprise, really. I don't think people move to Montana to be around other people.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

It's been a while since I took calculus, but not matter how high or how flat a curve is, isnt' the area under it the same?

[ChiliConCarnage]

https://apple.news/A7wGeaVJqRYW6gQg3_Y43bA

Interesting article about restaurants, the future, and opening up. I don't know what we can possibly do to help restaurants. They already ran on slim margins. It seems like the model may have to go through some transformation

edit: it's from the Washington Post if you want to go directly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-ever-be-same/