***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

My family hasn't eaten out since February but then, we rarely eat fast food each year.

I had a total of three cheeseburgers in 2019.

Do you keep track of other foods you eat?

Slices of pizza?
Hot dogs?
Popsicles?

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, it's not wrong. If you aren't infected, you don't get sick. You don't go to the hospital. And you don't die. That was the primary goal of mitigation. To minimize the number of cases. Everything flows from that.

It was never JUST about flattening the curve, or JUST overrunning hospitals. That was just part of it.

I don't know what source you're referring to.

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

[SAUTO]

[QUOTE=BleedingRed;14954079]You're 100% wrong, the same amount of people would be infected regardless of efforts put in place. Experts have said this over and over and over again.[/QUOTE


link? because that makes no sense at all.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Here is what Dr Fauci has repeatedly said about flattening the curve

Pfffft. Like he's an expert.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

And that is what we were told. The death reduction was a product of hospitals not being overrun.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

Did you post that for some specific reason?

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by Donger

So you're of the opinion that we would have ended up with the same number of cases without mitigation and we'd have with.

That's not what I said, but it was a decent attempt at dongering.

Mitigation was only to slow the process while allowing for a hope and a prayer. A vaccine or it's own demise is the hope and a prayer. Without either, it will become another bug that gets passed around the globe for a very long time. Even with a vaccine, it very well could remain the same nagging pain in the ass forever. People can't hide from that. We don't even know how many cases we have now so even arguing about an actual number is pointless.

Deaths are all that ever mattered. I do believe mitigation kept NYC from picking and choosing who got treatment and who got the toe tag.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by Monticore

So if the rehire, buy new stock and nobody shows up what happens?

Businesses still suffer and go out of business. See how easy this modeling is compared to coronavirus modeling? We are talking about the model and how it’s a little easier to predict outcomes on things like business losses than it is to predict coronavirus outcomes. Whether it’s the right thing or not, or if they will return isn’t really the question.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It's the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus

— Drew A. Harris, DPM, MPH (@drewaharris) February 28, 2020

the key word there is MAY.

and i wouldnt use anything from 2-28 as a point. so much has changed since then

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I still primarily focus on deaths. It's tough because it's a lagging indicator, but cases is just too dependent on testing rates to make a lot of sense of.

I've started following some of the model making types on twitter and they say the same. Something along the lines of how they're reported etc.

[O.city]

So the New York cases and hospitalizations and such are going down very quickly. Why is it happening there? Are they just that much better at social distancing?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by ghak99

That's not what I said, but it was a decent attempt at dongering.

Mitigation was only to slow the process while allowing for a hope and a prayer. A vaccine or it's own demise is the hope and a prayer. Without either, it will become another bug that gets passed around the globe for a very long time. Even with a vaccine, it very well could remain the same nagging pain in the ass forever. People can't hide from that. We don't even know how many cases we have now so even arguing about an actual number is pointless.

Deaths are all that ever mattered. I do believe mitigation kept NYC from picking and choosing who got treatment and who got the toe tag.

You said, "Getting infected is unavoidable." That means you think everyone will get it.

Of course you can hide from it.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by O.city

I've started following some of the model making types on twitter and they say the same. Something along the lines of how they're reported etc.

they say it could take up to 14 days for a death to be recorded

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

So the New York cases and hospitalizations and such are going down very quickly. Why is it happening there? Are they just that much better at social distancing?

Maybe the virus has mutated.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Donger

You said, "Getting infected is unavoidable." That means you think everyone will get it.

Of course you can hide from it.

Sure enjoy staying indoors for years. Lmao