***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

Yeah, no.

You're captain pessimist. This is every bit as ridiculous as the "we'll reopen the economy and everything will be normal" stuff.

It may not look exactly the same, but life will return when we're past this thing. There will be businesses that go out of business, and other businesses that replace them or pop up, people who lose everything, and people who take this opportunity to start new businesses and succeed... and things won't be exactly the same as before, but that's how it works.

Even generally, humans have survived plagues and wars and all kinds things that are far worse than this.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by petegz28

WHAT? Do you understand what it is you are saying or are you just being obtuse? Using your logic, which is completely based in fear, there is no point in re-opening any business at all because it might not stay open.

I didn't say not to open them but if you do it at the wrong time it could be worse, like maybe while we are still at the top of the mountain.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Donger

You don't think we're going to recover from this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand


And further, I can think of multiple reasons why extrapolating what happened after the Spanish Flu means absolute **** all to the present day, but I haven't had the urge to get banned from this thread yet.

But basically you have to be a monumentally optimistic clown to think the average US citizen will recover from this.

There's a lot of people thinking their cushy WFH white collar jobs are safe right now.

[ChiliConCarnage]

Originally Posted by O.city

The vitamin D thing is interesting. There's some evidence there atleast.

and sunlight and vitamins are cheap if it helps

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Monticore

The point is it seems to have only become an issue all of a sudden for some when there was already a problem.

You dont think a doubling in the projected number of people starving to death is a problem? 125MM+ more?

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by tk13

people who take this opportunity to start new businesses and succeed

2008 kneecapped small business activity for almost a decade.

This is worse.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by tk13

Of course I hope it does. I hope the virus moves toward a less virulent strain, or we come up with a better treatment plan to reduce deaths. Who doesn't hope that? That's ridiculous.

The reality that existed before this thing was never going to continue. I said that two months ago. Some people have a hard time accepting that, and I get that. It sucks. But it's reality.

But at the same time, we came out of the 1918 flu and had the roaring 20s. This isn't the end of the world, and we'll rebuild the areas that collapse. But it's going to be a painful road. And everyone can bicker as much as they want, it's not going to get back to "normal" until people can go outside and not be worried about catching this thing. That's the long and short of it.

Yep x1 billion

[O.city]

I think we were off in trying to estimate a total IFR for this thing. It's gonna vary greatly from place to place.

It may end up being 1.0 in NY ( I doubt that I'm guessing more .8) but could be say, .2 in KC or .03 in some rural area.

There's just so many factors in play.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

2008 kneecapped small business activity for almost a decade.

This is worse.

Entirely different.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You dont think a doubling in the projected number of people starving to death is a problem? 125MM+ more?

it is , and it is hard to discuss it without going into politics.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand


And further, I can think of multiple reasons why extrapolating what happened after the Spanish Flu means absolute **** all to the present day, but I haven't had the urge to get banned from this thread yet.

But basically you have to be a monumentally optimistic clown to think the average US citizen will recover from this.

There's a lot of people thinking their cushy WFH white collar jobs are safe right now.

That's hardly specific. Are you thinking we'll be like The Road Warrior, or something?

It's already painful for many people and it will continue to be painful. But, I think it should be remembered that this wasn't a downturn based on economics (e.g. dot.com bust, mortgage fun, etc.). Jobs weren't lost for any of those reasons. They'll come back, and least the vast majority of them. And we'll recover.

Call me an optimist. We've done it before. We'll do it again.

[O.city]

I'm also interested to see the outcome of targeting lockdowns vs large scale ones. Everyone brings up Sweden but I think you could intelligently do it while lowering the IFR to a reasonable level and keeping economic levels reasonable as well.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Did you manage to buy your playbar while it was on sale?

Don't get me started....Wife wants other things first

[tk13]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

2008 kneecapped small business activity for almost a decade.

This is worse.

Well I'm not touching that with a 10 foot pole, because there's no way to have that conversation without getting into politics. I don't think any administration in our life time really valued small business over the continued growth of large industry and chains.

But in general I agree, there are going to be a ton of small businesses go out because of this. And there will be others that pop up in their place. That's our economy.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by Donger

That's hardly specific. Are you thinking we'll be like The Road Warrior, or something?

It's already painful for many people and it will continue to be painful. But, I think it should be remembered that this wasn't a downturn based on economics (e.g. dot.com bust, mortgage fun, etc.). Jobs weren't lost for any of those reasons. They'll come back, and least the vast majority of them. And we'll recover.

Call me an optimist. We've done it before. We'll do it again.

Less "Mad Max" and more "Goodbye Lenin."