***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by jdubya

There will be a reduction of many COD`s this year because C19 is being blamed for nearly all. How many without C19 were going to die within hours, days or weeks from CAD, CVA, CA, PE`s, Sepsis, etc etc? Some here seem to be forgetting that the overwhelming majority of deaths are these very elderly.

But lets shut the economic engine down, hide under a rock and stop living....that will make it go away

I think there will be an increase because if Covid caused your pneumonia and renal failure , all 3 should be listed. The elderly still contribute to the economy Those old age homes are making money somehow.

I assume they will also revisit a lot of home deaths and potentially adjust the numbers either way but for some reason there is a backlog on autopsies right now, not sure why.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You would have to assume if thats the case now it was the case then yes.

Well it's been pretty close so far. What is your take on that?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

Well it's been pretty close so far. What is your take on that?

You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I think there will be an increase because if Covid caused your pneumonia and renal failure but all 3 should be listed. The elderly still contribute to the economy Those old age homes are making money somehow.

Do you mean the nursing homes or the retirement ones? The nice retirement ones are rather expensive.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Donger

We did in 1918 during the Spanish Flu.

Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?

No. It started at 100,000 with a high of 200,000 dead with mitigation.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by DaFace

FWIW, here's an update I threw together of the March 25th IHME model and actual performance through April 28th:



That model was predicting 81,114 deaths through the end of July.

Originally Posted by Marcellus

You mean the projection? It started at 200K didn't it?

This one.

Since 3-25 it's been pretty close.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?

~675,000 in the United States, yes.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud

This is a really dumb post.

Oh but what zinger retort!!!

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Do you mean the nursing homes or the retirement ones? The nice retirement ones are rather expensive.

People are making money of the elderly is what I was just trying to say, I assume that contributes to the economy somehow.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

This one.

Since 3-25 it's been pretty close.

To put the exact numbers to it, that model had the number of deaths through August at:

Minimum: 38,242
Mean: 81,114
Maximum: 162,106

And just focusing on dates we have actuals for (through April 27th):

Minimum: 30,741
Mean: 55,446
Maximum: 104,570
Actual: 55,891

[Donger]

For those curious about how we locked down during 1918:

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/a...antine/609163/

People even bitched about sporting events then...

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Monticore

People are making money of the elderly is what I was just trying to say, I assume that contributes to the economy somehow.

Allegedly the avenue my shop sits on was completely rebuilt by the city to appease the investors of a new multi-million dollar retirement home that just opened on the north side of it.

No idea if that's true, just what a city planner told me during reconstruction.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by jdubya

Ahhh, that nasty bug that killed 50 million people. The one that killed babies, children young and older, as well as healthy young and old adults.

So the shutdown didnt work?

Medical technology might have been slightly different back then

[SAUTO]

On the mo governor conference the guy just said we're at about 300 new today.

Uh no we're closer to 400 than 300 and also said to throw out all the triumph plant positives. They are a whole different group of people...

WTF? They don't know they can't spread it still? And saying all those people can go back to work this week.