***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by Donger

An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, previously predicted 72,433 deaths as of Monday morning. A press release from IHME said the full set of new projections will be released later this afternoon.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, referenced the updated projections on CNN earlier today, but said he couldn’t provide the specific number.

“We are seeing, of course, a rise in projected deaths for several reasons,” he told CNN’s John King on Inside Politics. “One of them is increased mobility before the relaxation, premature relaxation of social distancing, we’re adding more presumptive deaths as well, and we’re seeing a lot of outbreaks in the Midwest, for example.”

He said multiple variables impact infections – like heat, testing capacity and population density – but “the most important one is mobility.”

Right now, he said, “we’re seeing an increase in mobility that’s leading to an increase in mortality unfortunately in the United States.”

The IHME director, Dr. Christopher Murray, will be holding a press briefing at 4 p.m. ET today with additional details.

Well shit. Models are never wrong.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

You lost me at "projections"....Washington model has been so........entertaining lol

The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's easier to collect the crude oil that way.

I just don't picture a nice day at the beach to look like a Costco parking lot.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Monticore

I just don't picture a nice day at the beach to look like a Costco parking lot.

It's Texas.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You just now figuring that out?

Yes

Originally Posted by DaFace

I still have trouble getting upset about people who are 1) reasonably spread out and 2) outside in the sun.

It definitely is ok to be out just doesn't look like much social distancing is going on at least in some of those groups.

[jdubya]

Originally Posted by Donger

The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?

after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Donger

The one that estimated 60,000 to 80,000 deaths?

Lol.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by jdubya

after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday

No, the 60,000 to 80,000 estimate was released over a month ago, if memory serves.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Donger

It's Texas.

Yea I've been to Galveston, 3 times, the water there looks like dogshit, it's not appealing.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by jdubya

after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday

That estimate was from a month ago and with strict restrictions.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, the 60,000 to 80,000 estimate was released over a month ago, if memory serves.

April 8 IIRC.

We had 15k or something at that point

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

My issue is you switched gears in the middle of a conversation.


Other than that I'm great with more information leading to more questions and hopefully answers.


You said the thinking about the deaths would be different if the 70k was spread out over 4 months. I said you can't spread the 70k out over 4 months no matter what because they happened in 2.

Anything else doesn't matter in that conversation and us just moving the goals.

I never said to spread out the dates of 70k over four months. I said if the infection period was spread over four months. As information suggest might be possible, then regardless of when the deaths were, it changes our thoughts on those deaths because of questions it raises I previously posted. I haven’t tried to change the facts of when those occurred.

I’ll go back to your 10 year example as it illustrates this. Assuming all 70k occur in the last two months, 70k in ten years (start of virus) is not as bad as 70k in four months (from start of virus) which is not as bad as 70k in two months from start of virus.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by jdubya

after it happened? yes....I can also tell you what the weather in SF will be .....yesterday

But can you do it within 1 degree of accuracy?

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

I never said to spread out the dates of 70k over four months. I said if the infection period was spread over four months. As information suggest might be possible, then regardless of when the deaths were, it changes our thoughts on those deaths because of questions it raises I previously posted. I haven’t tried to change the facts of when those occurred.

I’ll go back to your 10 year example as it illustrates this. Assuming all 70k occur in the last two months, 70k in ten years (start of virus) is not as bad as 70k in four months (from start of virus) which is not as bad as 70k in two months from start of virus.

I don't care when it started.

70k died in 2 months and are still dying.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Megatron96

Certain states probably never should've locked down at all, based onthe information we have now. But what's done is done. Many states, particularly in the west/southwest should be opening back up as soon as practical.

For example, here in AZ we're seeing the curve pretty much flattened, the number of people admitted to hospitals has tailed off, the death rate has nearly zeroed out. In the four months since the virus has been tracked here in AZ, we're still under 400, and Maricopa county, the largest AZ county, is still under 200, at 168, up 7 from yesterday. Thankfully our governor isn't a complete tard, and we're opening things back up completely by the 15th, with some temporary guidelines of course.

Most of the rest of the West/Southwest/Northwest (with a couple exceptions) should be planning on the same for the sake of their economies and people.

Our facility (food plant) has over 700 employees, closer to 800 with temporary employees, we have been operating 24/7 the whole time. We have been taking employees temperatures every day as they enter the building going on about 2 weeks now, we have had 1 person sent home for a fever. (wasn't Covid)

We have 25 cases in the county, with a 1 case increase in the last week. Lowes, Home Depot, Walmart, Sam's Club are all pretty damn busy along with every fast food drive through in town is absolutely packed at lunch. The metro area population is about 250K.

**Knocks on wood***

I've never thought treating SW Missouri like NYC made sense or even treating SW Missouri like STL or KC for that matter.