***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...anization.html

I was just reading a pre print paper on that. Thats crazy.

[O.city]

https://www.businessinsider.com/half...ilities-2020-4

We need to be locking those facilities down tighter than Billay's asshole.

[displacedinMN]

Originally Posted by O.city

So if i'm reading this right, about 25%-30% of US Covid deaths are happening in nursing homes. That's just awful.

LIke I said-one within eye shot of me has 47-at last count.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

It’s just like the flu, bro. Ask @CDCgov TBH I’m surprised they went there, but so be it. (Odds this page survives the night? Un-high.) pic.twitter.com/qt3UlcwTxF

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) May 2, 2020

So what is the CDC saying here?

That the devil is in the details.

Here's the important difference: hospitalization rates are different than hospitalizations per illness. You have to remember that the seasonal flu affects somewhere around 40 million sympomatic carriers in a bad year (total numbers of infection would be higher). If the antibody studies are to be believed, then even the state with the highest rate of infection in the country would only extrapolate to about 40 million total infections. The reality is that it's probably somewhere around 20 million at most (that would correlate with around 6% infection rate).

It's also worth noting that standards for hospitalizations have changed. They are only admitting relatively serious COVID cases due to fear of spread and lack of equipment and PPE. Hospitals survive in part on soft admits, and I have no doubt that were the same principles applied to COVID as flu you'd have substantially more hospitalizations for the latter than currently exist.

Also, here is other data from the site:

The overall cumulative COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate is 40.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people 65 years and older (131.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (63.7 per 100,000).

Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) are higher than hospitalization rates for influenza at comparable time points* during the past 5 influenza seasons.

For people 65 years and older, current COVID-19 hospitalization rates are similar to those observed during comparable time points* during recent high severity influenza seasons.

For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.

-------

Here's the other issue: the CDC extrapolated their case load for flu based on symptomatic illness, but the flu also has asymptomatic carriers. It doesn't make their data wrong, but the way we process it can be affected by how we see COVID cases. When we factor COVID hospitalizations and overall disease burden in we bake the asymptomatic carriers into the cake, but we don't do that when discussing the flu. Thus, if you were to put the asymptomatic carriers in with the flu the rates of hospitalization would drop by a fair amount (16% by one meta-analysis but it had an extremely high rate of heterogeneity).

The other thing to remember is that even the worst flu season of the last decade only saw 60,000 deaths. We're well above that now with mitigation efforts, the background death rate strongly suggests that it's undercounted even then, and the number of cumulative infections is without a doubt still quite a bit below where a normal flu season would be.

Fewer infections, more deaths = deadlier virus
Similar hospitalizations = equally deadly virus or difference in admit practices

['Hamas' Jenkins]

OCity,

FWIW, it appears that the author of that tweet doesn't have the best reputation for sticking to the facts when it comes to science:

He authored the controversial 2019 book Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness and Violence that has been denounced as alarmist and inaccurate by many in the scientific and medical communities because of his claims that cannabis causes psychosis and violence; many scientists state that he is drawing inappropriate conclusions from the research, primarily by inferring causation from correlation,[14]:1[15]:1[16]:1[17]:1[18] as well as cherry picking[13]:1 data that fits his narrative, and falling victim to selection bias via his use of anecdotes[13]:1 to back up his assertions.[16]:1[17]:1[15]:1[19]:1[20] Other reviews have been less critical, accepting the anecdotes as real-life examples of the science presented.[21][22][23]

From Wiki.

Drawing inappropriate conclusions and cherry picking is exactly what he did there (and seems to be doing with all of his tweets on this topic).

[lewdog]

Originally Posted by The PMII Hypothesis

Exactly, it’s a nice $30 insurance policy to give you peace of mind akin to having a thermometer in the house. I know I’m glad I have it, and I’d never heard of them for personal use until this whole mess.

You linked a $70 one man!!!!!

My stimulus check can only go so far!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That the devil is in the details.

Here's the important difference: hospitalization rates are different than hospitalizations per illness. You have to remember that the seasonal flu affects somewhere around 40 million sympomatic carriers in a bad year (total numbers of infection would be higher). If the antibody studies are to be believed, then even the state with the highest rate of infection in the country would only extrapolate to about 40 million total infections. The reality is that it's probably somewhere around 20 million at most (that would correlate with around 6% infection rate).

It's also worth noting that standards for hospitalizations have changed. They are only admitting relatively serious COVID cases due to fear of spread and lack of equipment and PPE. Hospitals survive in part on soft admits, and I have no doubt that were the same principles applied to COVID as flu you'd have substantially more hospitalizations for the latter than currently exist.

Also, here is other data from the site:

The overall cumulative COVID-19 associated hospitalization rate is 40.4 per 100,000, with the highest rates in people 65 years and older (131.6 per 100,000) and 50-64 years (63.7 per 100,000).

Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in adults (18-64 years) are higher than hospitalization rates for influenza at comparable time points* during the past 5 influenza seasons.

For people 65 years and older, current COVID-19 hospitalization rates are similar to those observed during comparable time points* during recent high severity influenza seasons.

For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.

-------

Here's the other issue: the CDC extrapolated their case load for flu based on symptomatic illness, but the flu also has asymptomatic carriers. It doesn't make their data wrong, but the way we process it can be affected by how we see COVID cases. When we factor COVID hospitalizations and overall disease burden in we bake the asymptomatic carriers into the cake, but we don't do that when discussing the flu. Thus, if you were to put the asymptomatic carriers in with the flu the rates of hospitalization would drop by a fair amount (16% by one meta-analysis but it had an extremely high rate of heterogeneity).

The other thing to remember is that even the worst flu season of the last decade only saw 60,000 deaths. We're well above that now with mitigation efforts, the background death rate strongly suggests that it's undercounted even then, and the number of cumulative infections is without a doubt still quite a bit below where a normal flu season would be.

Fewer infections, more deaths = deadlier virus
Similar hospitalizations = equally deadly virus or difference in admit practices

Did the CDC just revise the Covid death number down as well or am I reading that wrong?

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

Did the CDC just revise the Covid death number down as well or am I reading that wrong?

Link?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

OCity,

FWIW, it appears that the author of that tweet doesn't have the best reputation for sticking to the facts when it comes to science:

He authored the controversial 2019 book Tell Your Children: The Truth About Marijuana, Mental Illness and Violence that has been denounced as alarmist and inaccurate by many in the scientific and medical communities because of his claims that cannabis causes psychosis and violence; many scientists state that he is drawing inappropriate conclusions from the research, primarily by inferring causation from correlation,[14]:1[15]:1[16]:1[17]:1[18] as well as cherry picking[13]:1 data that fits his narrative, and falling victim to selection bias via his use of anecdotes[13]:1 to back up his assertions.[16]:1[17]:1[15]:1[19]:1[20] Other reviews have been less critical, accepting the anecdotes as real-life examples of the science presented.[21][22][23]

From Wiki.

Drawing inappropriate conclusions and cherry picking is exactly what he did there (and seems to be doing with all of his tweets on this topic).

I haven't really followed it just happen to come across my feed so I read into it.

Some weird shit happening on the CDC site that i can't really make heads or tails of.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Link?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. The United States population, based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, is 327,167,434.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

If you look down at the state data you'll find that many of the jurisdictions haven't reported any deaths when deaths in those areas are well known. It's just a reporting lag on their part.

[O.city]

I was assuming it was a reporting error of some sorts, but i don't think the 8 week delay is possible and they're also using presumed deaths for COvid 19. So wouldn't that mean you don't necessarily have that large of a delay from the certificate? Also look at the states not reporting. I don't know if they're gonna report that many.

[petegz28]

U.S. beef output is down way more than shutdowns suggest
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...owU?li=BBnb7Kz

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by O.city

I was assuming it was a reporting error of some sorts, but i don't think the 8 week delay is possible and they're also using presumed deaths for COvid 19. So wouldn't that mean you don't necessarily have that large of a delay from the certificate? Also look at the states not reporting. I don't know if they're gonna report that many.

Definitely not, but I doubt reporting lag only happens there, especially when you have corpses rotting in trucks in other areas.

[lewdog]

All the pulse oximeters on Amazon are weeks+ out on shipping. Doesn’t look like much better luck on cvs or Walgreens either.