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04-28-2020, 05:58 PM | #25411 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 186,400
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04-28-2020, 06:01 PM | #25412 | |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Miami, FL
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Quote:
Those are all primarily lifestyle driven conditions. Those are the drains on hospital capacity. |
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Posts: 42,953
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04-28-2020, 06:02 PM | #25413 |
Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2006
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My post was not political. My post was not conspiracy but factually and scientifically correct. My beliefs on this "pandemic" are inline with my family consisting of a doctor at one of the metro hospitals and 3 ER nurses in a few other metro hospitals.
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Posts: 2,922
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04-28-2020, 06:02 PM | #25414 | |
"You like to drink?"
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: "I like to drink."
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Posts: 44,077
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04-28-2020, 06:03 PM | #25415 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Hollywood, CA
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How dare we even allow those assholes to live! |
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Posts: 88,960
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04-28-2020, 06:06 PM | #25416 | |
Mahomes: We Are All Witnesses
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Miami, FL
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The healthy 75 year olds who take care of themselves are not the problem. |
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Posts: 42,953
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04-28-2020, 06:07 PM | #25417 |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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Do you have a better one you'd prefer? I use it because it's one of the few kinds of models that most laypeople interact with on a regular basis. If you'd like, I could instead expound on the virtues of economic impact modeling, price sensitivity modeling, conjoint studies, max-diff analysis, market mix modeling, and the like.
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Posts: 52,457
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04-28-2020, 06:09 PM | #25418 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Overall, their methodology is good, but even they admit: "The specificity was acceptable at 99.5% (98.7-99.9) but leads to a low positive predictive value in low-prevalence areas." The specificity is claimed to be 99.5%. So, if they test 1000 people, five of those will be false positives, but if 1.7% of the population actually has the disease, then over 1/4 of the positive tests are false positives. ((17/(17+5)) and they admit uncertainty over reactivity with other coronavirus antibodies. They also admit to the lack of a gold standard test to weigh their test against. This is actually a really well-designed study given their limitations that they rightfully acknowledge, but the low prevalence does throw quite a bit of potential skew into the numbers. |
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Posts: 74,968
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04-28-2020, 06:10 PM | #25419 | |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Posts: 40,835
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04-28-2020, 06:12 PM | #25420 |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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Obesity is considers a chronic disease by the CDC. If you go with BMI a lot of people are obese
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Posts: 7,064
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04-28-2020, 06:16 PM | #25421 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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That was further mitigated by changing clinical practice, wherein they ended up hospitalizing far fewer people than they normally would otherwise. With that said those most likely to criticize these models are also those most likely to know the least about them. People assume that if a model predicts 64,000 deaths that 72,000 means that it was way off, and that simply demonstrates a lack of understanding of how confidence intervals and forecasting work. The creation of a predictive model is incredibly difficult, and given the information they had, they actually did a pretty good job. Let us also not forget that almost 60,000 people are already dead in spite of mitigation efforts taken, those numbers will continue to increase, and that it is altogether likely that the tail of this curve will be far longer than the ascent was, which means that you're probably going to end up with around 80-100,000 dead by the end of next month, even without a spike, which could still come if other locations don't implement distancing measures wisely. |
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Posts: 74,968
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04-28-2020, 06:19 PM | #25422 |
...
Join Date: Nov 2001
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That's the biggest flaw with the "just make people with health issues quarantine themselves" while the rest of the world goes back to normal. There's going to be a lot of people on the list that need to stay home.
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Posts: 55,816
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04-28-2020, 06:23 PM | #25423 |
Ain't no relax!
Join Date: Sep 2005
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78% of US citizens over the age of 55 have at least one pre-existing condition.
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Posts: 48,402
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04-28-2020, 06:25 PM | #25424 |
best in the biz
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Under Pressure
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Posts: 72,726
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04-28-2020, 06:26 PM | #25425 |
It was not a fair catch
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Correcting papers
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I have 2 retirement areas that I can see from my house.
They have somewhere around 50 deaths between the two places. Last edited by displacedinMN; 04-28-2020 at 06:36 PM.. |
Posts: 38,157
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