***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...wAMvoNYG9bgQ6U

For the 30 days ending April 4, there were over 15,000 excess deaths in the US, of which 8,128 were attributed to COVID. Thus, even if you account for other deaths occurring as a result of not seeking treatment as a result of COVID, there were likely several thousand deaths that were undercounted in the first month.

The thing with the deaths is rather confusing overall it seems. There are reports of over-reporting on one hand and under reporting on the other. Both of which can be right.

By the same token though does anyone dispute that there is significantly more cases that have not been identified?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Interesting how you're speaking about this in the past tense; and I don't think that graph shows what you think it does.

The larger question is what if after we open up do we see a spike while Sweden doesn't see one of significance if any?

Are we just delaying the inevitable and in some ways possibly making it worse?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Interesting how you're speaking about this in the past tense; and I don't think that graph shows what you think it does.

Yeah, the log scale here is critical. Sweden is currently having about 10x as many deaths per week as their neighbors. That's not a very good argument that they're "winning."

[petegz28]

San Francisco extends to mid May...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/san-...ronavirus.html

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, the log scale here is critical. Sweden is currently having about 10x as many deaths per week as their neighbors. That's not a very good argument that they're "winning."

I was looking at that graph and trying to spot the 'winning'.

Then I remember who posted it.

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by stumppy

I was looking at that graph and trying to spot the 'winning'.

Then I remember who posted it.

Even when presented a visual of a curve flattening apparently this dumbshit still doesn't get it.

To be expected.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Even when presented a visual of a curve flattening apparently this dumbshit still doesn't get it.

To be expected.

Do you understand what a log scale is? And do you understand that this is a chart that shows pace - not totals?

[O.city]

The Sweden thing was never going to severely limit it. It was going to get thru it as quick and as swift as possible while doing what they can to limit the ones with issues

Things have gotten twisted on the plan

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, the log scale here is critical. Sweden is currently having about 10x as many deaths per week as their neighbors. That's not a very good argument that they're "winning."

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Does this trend really look worse than what we are seeing here?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Even when presented a visual of a curve flattening apparently this dumbshit still doesn't get it.

To be expected.

Ummm, you posted log scales, not linear.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Which is how you go from a few thousand lab-confirmed swine flu deaths in the US to four times that number in CDC estimates.

People need to stop with the narrative that COVID is being overcounted. It is demonstrably false. Precisely the opposite is happening.

However Hamas, Would you agree that this is probably the most accurate count, even if low, in real time, that we have had for a pandemic. The testing dwarfs any other virus/flu in the past.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Ummm, you posted log scales, not linear.

Log scales are the shit...screw linear

[FloridaMan88]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Do you understand what a log scale is? And do you understand that this is a chart that shows pace - not totals?

If you are referring to a logarithmic scale to measure exponential growth, then Sweden is winning that metric as well.

They have not experienced an exponential increase in cases/deaths.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

The Sweden thing was never going to severely limit it. It was going to get thru it as quick and as swift as possible while doing what they can to limit the ones with issues

Things have gotten twisted on the plan

I think where Sweden comes out better is they could be one and done if you will. Whereas we could be looking at some repeats.

There is something to be said for just carrying on and dealing with it. Yes, it is more costly in the short term but longer term they might be ahead of the game.

[IowaHawkeyeChief]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Sweden's death rate is 6x that of their neighbors while still implementing many social distancing measures, but keep banging that drum.

Isn't part of their thought process is that you can contain the virus through extreme social distancing, however it is here and a vaccine isn't a sure thing and 12-18 months out at best. Therefore, if this reboots again this fall their population will be in better shape due to herd immunity?

Also, I thought they had a lot of nursing home cases and deaths early, before procedures to isolate that population, and that is skewing the numbers for Sweden, but not sure.