***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Donger

No, just noticing an amusing trend.

Yeah, it's pretty telling how YouTube de-monetizes certain channels and not others, but that's another topic for another thread.

[KCUnited]

Originally Posted by petegz28

At some point logistics come into play...

You only have x amount of test kits
You only have x amount of resources to perform the tests
You only have x amount of resources to process the tests

And then you have to actually get the people to come and get tested

I've thought about this last point as apparently anyone in IL can go to the over 120+ drive through testing centers to get tested but I honestly have no desire because I don't have symptoms nor have been in contact with a known positive. So if that line of thinking is prevalent, then even when widespread testing is available, only those more likely to have it are getting themselves tested so the number of new cases will continue to look bad.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

From what I have herd this is correct. The spreading in and of itself may not go down but the legality of the virus will as it adapts to humans. We have to keep in mind that viruses generally do not want to kill their host.

I have read a few things now where scientists have said that most likely over the next couple of years this virus will become just another virus that causes sniffles and we Lysol away like the other Corona viruses we deal with every day.

NOt necessarily that, but think of a bell curve. The area under the curve is the infections, the area above teh curve is the people immune. As one increases, the other has to decrease.

That leads to herd immunity which is what a vaccine does as well. But the RO drops as more people recover form infections (if they can't be reinfected) as they can't pass it on so the chain of transmission stops.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Bowser

They make a real strong pitch to open up everything real soon because there are way more people infected then we realize. They talk about how herd immunity plays a roll and the dangers of the economy being strapped for prolonged periods of time. It's basically all common sense talk, but they have the data to back up their claims.

I'm listening now. I wish the woman would stop interjecting. - Though as I get further in, she's not so bad.

And that reporter guy is obnoxious as ****.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bowser

They make a real strong pitch to open up everything real soon because there are way more people infected then we realize. They talk about how herd immunity plays a roll and the dangers of the economy being strapped for prolonged periods of time. It's basically all common sense talk, but they have the data to back up their claims.

If they didn't do random testing, how can you claim that their data is valid regarding the state-wide number of cases?

[stumppy]

Originally Posted by Donger

If they didn't do random testing, how can you claim that their data is valid regarding the state-wide number of cases?

I would think most of the test subjects being symptomatic would make the entire thing inaccurate as hell when trying to determine state wide numbers.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by stumppy

I would think most of the test subjects being symptomatic would make the entire thing inaccurate as hell when trying to determine state wide numbers.

Don't we do similar every year when we estimate how many people have the flu? Asking for a friend.

[ghak99]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay and they should. But what if at the time the tests are taken someone tests negative but then gets it from somewhere else tomorrow?

I see what they are doing and agree they should. But you can't allow it to provide a false sense of security either.

A couple small food processing facilities have let out their plans to secure housing and are planning to isolate their workforce post test. There is also talk of another slightly larger facility renting a college dorm. This system obviously can't be implemented nation wide, but in certain circumstances it might work in the short term.

A fairly large operation had previously floated the idea of importing an already quarantined temporary workforce that could be isolated in a large temporary housing situation. I believe it was tabled when Union issues arose.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Don't we do similar every year when we estimate how many people have the flu? Asking for a friend.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

In other words, generally speaking, yes

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Donger

If they didn't do random testing, how can you claim that their data is valid regarding the state-wide number of cases?

They can only go off the data they have, and they ARE allowed to extrapolate it out. They do this for not only California, but for New York and other countries going off of THEIR data.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Bowser

They can only go off the data they have, and they ARE allowed to extrapolate it out. They do this for not only California, but for New York and other countries going off of THEIR data.

It the study is not properly set up, you can't really gain much from it.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bowser

They can only go off the data they have, and they ARE allowed to extrapolate it out. They do this for not only California, but for New York and other countries going off of THEIR data.

As I said, they can but they shouldn't. If they didn't do random testing, and mostly tested symptomatic patients, of course their numbers are high.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by O.city

It the study is not properly set up, you can't really gain much from it.

But haven't we seen other studies in different parts of the countries that have shown similar results?

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Donger

As I said, they can but they shouldn't. If they didn't do random testing, and mostly tested symptomatic patients, of course their numbers are high.

What about the randomized tests that New York and Miami has completed?