***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am gonna watch but it's almost 9 mins long. Can we get a summary?

They did some testing in Bakersfield and believe that California has over 4.7 million cases.

And:

"If you're going to dance on someone's constitutional rights you better have a good reason, you better have a really good reason, not just a theory," he said. "The data is showing us it's time to lift (the stay-at-home orders) so if we don't lift, what is the reason?"

Noymer of UC Irvine disagreed with the doctors' premise that COVID-19 is as widespread as Erickson and Massihi think, saying the idea that nearly 5 million Californians have had the virus is a gross overestimate. The people tested in California were not a random sample; they were mostly people who were symptomatic, Noymer said. Therefore, extrapolating the positive test rate across the entire population of the state is not an accurate way to arrive at how widespread the virus is.

And even if 12 percent of the state has had the virus, that still leaves 88 percent vulnerable to it, Noymer said.

"They’re advancing factual inaccuracies and playing off the esoteric nature of the mortality stats to make a case that the economy should be reopened," Noymer said. "I agree it should be reopened, but it should be opened deliberately, bit by bit, and informed by science. Not informed by a misreading of the mortality."

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Yeah, I don't know how that article states anything definitive. I know this guy research claims there was not outbreak but we are seeing bodies of people who have it dating back to the time he says they couldn't have had it.

Yeah, it doesn't... just says "no evidence" with mentions of "...and if people had it, there's no way of knowing".

Well... no shit.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Watch it, THEN react to it.

I watched some of it. Nice gold pitch at the start...

[TLO]

Bowser can we get a brief summary? I'm have a busy day of jacking off, playing video games, as posting on ChiefsPlanet to watch a 90 minute video.

[TLO]

Oh I think Donger just gave the summary.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

They did some testing in Bakersfield and believe that California has over 4.7 million cases.

And:

"If you're going to dance on someone's constitutional rights you better have a good reason, you better have a really good reason, not just a theory," he said. "The data is showing us it's time to lift (the stay-at-home orders) so if we don't lift, what is the reason?"

Noymer of UC Irvine disagreed with the doctors' premise that COVID-19 is as widespread as Erickson and Massihi think, saying the idea that nearly 5 million Californians have had the virus is a gross overestimate. The people tested in California were not a random sample; they were mostly people who were symptomatic, Noymer said. Therefore, extrapolating the positive test rate across the entire population of the state is not an accurate way to arrive at how widespread the virus is.

And even if 12 percent of the state has had the virus, that still leaves 88 percent vulnerable to it, Noymer said.

"They’re advancing factual inaccuracies and playing off the esoteric nature of the mortality stats to make a case that the economy should be reopened," Noymer said. "I agree it should be reopened, but it should be opened deliberately, bit by bit, and informed by science. Not informed by a misreading of the mortality."

Okay so why should I listen to Noymer over these 2 doctors?

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Donger

They did some testing in Bakersfield and believe that California has over 4.7 million cases.

And:

"If you're going to dance on someone's constitutional rights you better have a good reason, you better have a really good reason, not just a theory," he said. "The data is showing us it's time to lift (the stay-at-home orders) so if we don't lift, what is the reason?"

Noymer of UC Irvine disagreed with the doctors' premise that COVID-19 is as widespread as Erickson and Massihi think, saying the idea that nearly 5 million Californians have had the virus is a gross overestimate. The people tested in California were not a random sample; they were mostly people who were symptomatic, Noymer said. Therefore, extrapolating the positive test rate across the entire population of the state is not an accurate way to arrive at how widespread the virus is.

And even if 12 percent of the state has had the virus, that still leaves 88 percent vulnerable to it, Noymer said.

"They’re advancing factual inaccuracies and playing off the esoteric nature of the mortality stats to make a case that the economy should be reopened," Noymer said. "I agree it should be reopened, but it should be opened deliberately, bit by bit, and informed by science. Not informed by a misreading of the mortality."

YOu aren't going to have 88 % of the population get it though. As more people get it, the chances of it spreading goes down.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Oh I think Donger just gave the summary.

They are basically saying that the CFR of COVID-19 is no worse than seasonal influenza and mitigation efforts should be lifted, therefore.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I am gonna watch but it's almost 9 mins long. Can we get a summary?

Originally Posted by TLO

Bowser can we get a brief summary? I'm have a busy day of jacking off, playing video games, as posting on ChiefsPlanet to watch a 90 minute video.

They make a real strong pitch to open up everything real soon because there are way more people infected then we realize. They talk about how herd immunity plays a roll and the dangers of the economy being strapped for prolonged periods of time. It's basically all common sense talk, but they have the data to back up their claims.

Originally Posted by Donger

I watched some of it. Nice gold pitch at the start...

Is that what scares you off of with opinions and views that differ from yours these days? Lightning bolts and YouTubers with promoters? Lol, ok.

[KCUnited]

What's the main driver limiting the testing capabilities? I know IL has committed to testing >10K per day, but I've never heard how they got to that metric or why it wasn't attainable prior. Is it an available resources thing, manufacturing capabilities? What's it take to make more testing available?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

They are basically saying that the CFR of COVID-19 is no worse than seasonal influenza and mitigation efforts should be lifted, therefore.

If this thing is more contagious than the flu then how many people do you think really have it or have had it?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay so why should I listen to Noymer over these 2 doctors?

If the sample wasn't random you can't extrapolate the results. Well, you can, but you shouldn't.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KCUnited

What's the main driver limiting the testing capabilities? I know IL has committed to testing >10K per day, but I've never heard how they got to that metric or why it wasn't attainable prior. Is it an available resources thing, manufacturing capabilities? What's it take to make more testing available?

At some point logistics come into play...

You only have x amount of test kits
You only have x amount of resources to perform the tests
You only have x amount of resources to process the tests

And then you have to actually get the people to come and get tested

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Is that what scares you off of with opinions and views that differ from yours these days? Lightning bolts and YouTubers with promoters? Lol, ok.

No, just noticing an amusing trend.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

YOu aren't going to have 88 % of the population get it though. As more people get it, the chances of it spreading goes down.

From what I have heard this is correct. The spreading in and of itself may not go down but the legality of the virus will as it adapts to humans. We have to keep in mind that viruses generally do not want to kill their host.

I have read a few things now where scientists have said that most likely over the next couple of years this virus will become just another virus that causes sniffles and we Lysol away like the other Corona viruses we deal with every day.