***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

So then what do we do?

I've stated what I think the best process is more than a few times, but there are a lot of things we're not doing that make that process currently unattainable.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You seriously underestimate the number of people in this country with underlying medical conditions. We are a very unhealthy society.

And we are seriously underestimating how many people actually have or have had this. We can't play it both ways.

I mean if it came out tomorrow that we somehow found out that say 40 million people had this would that change your perspective at all?

Or say even 20 million?

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

You seriously underestimate the number of people in this country with underlying medical conditions. We are a very unhealthy society.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

And we are seriously underestimating how many people actually have or have had this. We can't play it both ways.

I mean if it came out tomorrow that we somehow found out that say 40 million people had this would that change your perspective at all?

Or say even 20 million?

I would imagine around 20 million people probably have had it. In order to get herd immunity for this virus if the R0 is near 6, you need another 220 million people to get it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I've stated what I think the best process is more than a few times, but there are a lot of things we're not doing that make that process currently unattainable.

If your answer is to just test on a large scale I say that can present a false sense of security. I don't understand the call for such testing at this point unless you can freeze everyone who is negative in place after they are tested until all those who were positive recovered.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I would imagine around 20 million people probably have had it. In order to get herd immunity for this virus if the R0 is near 6, you need another 220 million people to get it.

Oh I agree and I wasn't arguing about heard immunity. But it suddenly takes our CFR or whatever to what, .2% if 20 mil people have or have had it?

[KS Smitty]

Originally Posted by petegz28

How do you know if an entire meat packing plant is "sick"?

Originally Posted by O.city

How would you know if they’re asymptomatic?

With reliable testing, which the lack thereof seems to be a major sticking point in opening things back up.

It's ridiculous that states have had to bid (against each other) on kits and supplies, there has to/should be an equitable way to ensure everyone has the tools they need to insure the safest easing of the current regulations.

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I would imagine around 20 million people probably have had it. In order to get herd immunity for this virus if the R0 is near 6, you need another 220 million people to get it.

Making the CFR .26%?

[Ghost of Maslowski]

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...04242020-1.pdf

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Ghost of Maslowski

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/down...04242020-1.pdf

66 people out of 10,600 with no underlying health conditions? 8,000 over 65?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by KS Smitty

With reliable testing, which the lack thereof seems to be a major sticking point in opening things back up.

It's ridiculous that states have had to bid (against each other) on kits and supplies, there has to/should be an equitable way to ensure everyone has the tools they need to insure the safest easing of the current regulations.

Again, I think testing is being a bit overblown. We don't need tests to see our hospitals are obviously not overflowing. Don't get me wrong I am not against testing at all and think kits should be available but what is the strategy with testing at this point in regards to opening back up?

If I am sick I am staying home, especially right now. If I have symptoms I am being counted as positive even if I am not. I just don't see the correlation between testing and it being a requirement to opening things back up?

I mean, if you have an outbreak or are in a hot spot, you're gonna know without testing because there is going to be a run on the hospitals and doctors.

We are laying off doctors and nurses right now while at the same time we are being told we have to shut down so we don't overrun the hospitals.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

66 people out of 10,000 with no underlying health conditions?

Well I agree with Hamas that there are more people with underlying conditions than without. That being said yes, there cannot be a one size fits all answer to this.

People who know they are at risk are going to have to take more precautions than people who aren't. At least until effective treatments come around.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I would imagine around 20 million people probably have had it. In order to get herd immunity for this virus if the R0 is near 6, you need another 220 million people to get it.

I just can’t see the Ro being that high. If it is and this thing has been here since early January I’d think it would have broke a while back

Surely it’s around 3

[O.city]

You test so you know where it’s at and can isolate those who test positive. Constant testing of a lot of people would work I just don’t know if we can get there

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Well I agree with Hamas that there are more people with underlying conditions than without. That being said yes, there cannot be a one size fits all answer to this.

People who know they are at risk are going to have to take more precautions than people who aren't. At least until effective treatments come around.

I dont even want to do the math but based on that data the CFR for people under 65 is probably less than your odds of killing yourself.