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04-05-2017, 10:55 AM | |
World's Best Boss
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bronco Country
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***
Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride
Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC): We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0 While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time. 2017's Burning Questions Revisited: 1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline? We're buyers, baby. In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October. 2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels? In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league. 3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen? In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job). MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason. 4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention? Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages. 5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions? Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential. Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player? Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future. The Picture Forward There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future. The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride. April OP:
Spoiler!
Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM.. |
Posts: 18,543
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06-12-2017, 01:00 PM | #2161 | |
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Quote:
The AL is once again piss-pounding the Junior Circuit during interleague play. The AL is quite good - do you mean the teams are bunched together in the standings? |
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06-12-2017, 01:06 PM | #2162 |
War Eagle !!!
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mobile, AL 36608
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06-12-2017, 01:09 PM | #2163 |
Rabbi Goldmann
Join Date: Nov 2012
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They think that certainly. After 20 years of domination you'd think they'd get the hint. So far in 2017 they are 48-71 vs the AL (a 65-97 full season equivalent). Cubs 1-5, El Birdos 2-6, on and on.
If the Royals were in the NL we'd be a definite playoff threat. Even the lowly Brewers lead a division. |
Posts: 87,025
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06-12-2017, 01:09 PM | #2164 | |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Kansas
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Quote:
PS how did I miss you in San Diego?? |
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Posts: 22,778
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06-12-2017, 01:12 PM | #2165 | |
War Eagle !!!
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mobile, AL 36608
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Quote:
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06-12-2017, 01:14 PM | #2166 |
Scarlett Johansson's boytoy
Join Date: Nov 2006
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I'd argue thought this year that the Royals are not only fighting for a playoff spot, but also relevancy. If they tank and have a fire sale, what effect does that have on ratings, attendance, and the golden ticket that is the TV contract.
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Posts: 12,526
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06-12-2017, 01:26 PM | #2167 |
#RIPAce
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: So Cal
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I don't think it would effect the TV contract. They've seen the ratings that a championship-caliber team is capable of producing.
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Posts: 17,346
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06-12-2017, 01:31 PM | #2168 |
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2011
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Key word is championship-caliber, which championship-caliber clubs have been a big-time outlier for the Royals as a whole for the past 30 years. Last time won World Series, went 20 + years of bad baseball. Who is to say it would not be a repeat. Royals do not have the leverage right now in this deal. They missed their renegotiation window IMO.
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06-12-2017, 01:34 PM | #2169 | |
Supporter
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Hollywood, CA
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Quote:
If they have a fire sale which brings back a massive amount of talent, they'll be in a position to contend again, especially in the Central, by 2019. |
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06-12-2017, 01:39 PM | #2170 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Kansas
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Look, I'm certainly not going to pretend to know much about TV contracts but I know the guys running that deal aren't idiots. It would not surprise me at all if they have several different offers to make the Royals depending on the status of the big 3(from a marketing and numbers perspective Minor and Vargas and such do nothing. The needle movers are Hosmer, Moose and Cain). I could see an offer if they all re-sign(would take a miracle), a separate offer depending on the return for those guys and how long their projections show it will take for the Royals to be relevant again and finally an offer for if the big 3 leave and the Royals recoup our favorite prospect, Jack Schitt in return. I'm guessing the first two are significantly larger than the third
Edit: I just read Dane's comment. You ****ers had me thinking the tv deal was up this year. It's not until 2019 or 2020? Then worrying about that now is worth **** all |
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06-12-2017, 01:47 PM | #2171 | |
War Eagle !!!
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mobile, AL 36608
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Quote:
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06-12-2017, 01:49 PM | #2172 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Kansas
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Oh no, I definitely agree with you. I'm saying that TV executives wouldn't care about the Jason Vargas and Mike Minor's of the world. They know that that casual fans aren't turning on the TV to see Jason Vargas. But they sure as **** are watching Eric Hosmer. That's all I'm saying.
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Posts: 22,778
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06-12-2017, 02:41 PM | #2173 |
Stay positive, don't give up
Join Date: Dec 2001
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This is what's more important...the tram is still under .500. they aren't good enough to get in right now
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Posts: 46,242
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06-12-2017, 03:56 PM | #2174 |
M-I-Z-Z-O-U
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Kansas City
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Lot of activity today... catch up thoughts:
Re: HR record or trade Moose - PB is right. This shouldn't even be a consideration. The low team HR record was a fun talking point for local radio when talking about how pathetic the Royals were. Now it's just played out. It's really rather meaningless. Re: return for Cain, Moustakas, Minor, Vargas, Hosmer... I think you can get a rather sizeable haul for that group and would expand it to include Herrera and Soria. Despite his struggles, Herrera still has monster stuff (and I think a lot of pitching coaches would watch him and suggest the same I do, mainly to rely more on fastball). Relief help can be a useful chip-in with other players, to sweeten the return. In all, I think you could hope to get a nice group of 3-4 players who are top 100 types, hopefully at least one top 50 guy. You're not going to get elite guys back, in all likelihood, but you can get some guys that are close. Re: Comp picks. If the Royals keep Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas all year, I think that means they are in the race, at least partially, all year. That would indicate all three were healthy. I think they'd gladly give QOs in that case, and I think all three would turn them down before signing deals in excess of $50, netting the team 3 sandwich first round comp picks. Should they turn an offer down and not get $50 million total, I believe KC still gets a comp pick for each after they second round. Still valuable. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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06-12-2017, 04:52 PM | #2175 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: L.A.
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Seems like Moose is a lock to get $50M. So what are the odds the trade offer is better than the draft pick?
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