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04-13-2020, 03:23 PM | #20446 |
Starter
Join Date: Dec 2011
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My response was YOU pick. If you want me to break it down for you, I will tell you that they have missed significantly of number of cases, required hospitalizations, required ICU beds, and number of need ventilators. They have been closer on deaths, but that is without question the best data input into the model we likely have. I do not need to go further into what has been well documented as to how off the models have been, so why do you acting like you do not follow the news?
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04-13-2020, 03:24 PM | #20447 |
Inmem 2.0
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: My house
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04-13-2020, 03:27 PM | #20448 | |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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I wish as much as anyone that they were more accurate. I just don't have an issue with it when they're not. |
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04-13-2020, 03:28 PM | #20449 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Quote:
We do have their estimates on deaths, without mitigation and with, and the latter has been revised based on participation on the mitigation efforts. |
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04-13-2020, 03:28 PM | #20450 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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I would think so. KC is talking about extending into May. The 6 KC area counties all locked down well before the entire state of Ks did so I think she will most likely roll with whatever Johnson\Wyandotte County does to be honest
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04-13-2020, 03:35 PM | #20451 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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Yes I have.
My frustration comes from the model seemingly having a much higher degree of confidence, ( in Missouri/Kansas) in particular, and then deciding on this run that they really aren't all that certain at all. (The shaded area of possibility has grown A LOT) It's that way for multiple other states too. I guess I'd like to know what exactly changed to make the model more uncertain. |
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04-13-2020, 03:35 PM | #20452 |
Inmem 2.0
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: My house
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https://www.kshb.com/news/coronaviru...s-across-state
"Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Dr. Lee Norman said during a press conference on Monday that an outbreak tied to a March conference at a Kansas City, Kansas, church also has resulted in four deaths. It’s one of five outbreaks related to religious gatherings in the state, Norman said." |
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04-13-2020, 03:36 PM | #20453 | |
Diablo Negro
Join Date: Sep 2003
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04-13-2020, 03:44 PM | #20454 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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04-13-2020, 03:46 PM | #20455 |
Diablo Negro
Join Date: Sep 2003
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04-13-2020, 03:47 PM | #20456 |
Kind of a mod
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Donkey Land
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That's a legit gripe I have about their site - they don't publish anything on past performance. Every time they revise everything, the old stuff disappears.
So the answer is, it's tough to say for sure (though you could dig and compare in individual areas). In Colorado, I recall an earlier model showing that we'd need over 10k hospital beds with a capacity of 5k, and now it's showing a need for more like 500. So I get it - this is the only model that's being made public, and it's fluctuated tremendously. |
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04-13-2020, 03:56 PM | #20457 | |
I love your mom
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Sturgeon Falls, Ontario
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04-13-2020, 03:56 PM | #20458 | |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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04-13-2020, 04:00 PM | #20459 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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An influential coronavirus model cited by the White House said that today is the peak day for daily deaths in the United States.
About 2,150 Covid-19 deaths are projected for today and deaths are expected to decline moving forward, according to model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. A total of 68,841 people are now expected to die in the US by August, which is up from Friday’s projection of 61,500 deaths. The model predicts the pandemic will peter out in May, but experts have questioned its assumption that there will be no resurgence of the virus in the summer months According to the model, the US hit “peak resource use” three days ago, on Friday. The latest update of the model says the US faced a shortage of 7,369 intensive care beds on that date, but it’s unclear whether that occurred. Hard-hit New York hit its peak number of deaths three days ago, according to the model, but hundreds of deaths are still expected daily for the coming weeks. Some states are still expected to be weeks away from their peak numbers of deaths: Florida, for example, is expected to hit peak deaths on May 6, when 128 people are projected to die. Texas, for its part, is predicted to hit peak deaths on April 30, when 71 people are estimated to die. The country’s largest state, California, is projected to hit peak deaths in six days, on April 19, when about 50 people are estimated to die. |
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04-13-2020, 04:01 PM | #20460 |
Life is changing..
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: NW Missouri
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I thought for a while you could go back and look at past projections, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Unless I'm not able to find it on my phone for whatever reason.
Anyway, we're at +1,380 deaths today with a good portion of states reprin reporting. |
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