***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

"Extend into Mid-May" is a clever way of saying "until next year", isn't it?

I think it is time for some conspiracy videos!

[TLO]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Given their performance to date, why do we care about the projections?

Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?

[Mr. Plow]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

"Extend into Mid-May" is a clever way of saying "until next year", isn't it?

I'd be surprised if the governor doesn't extend the Kansas stay at home order this week to at least the end of April.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by TLO

Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?

One with a large margin for error?

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by TLO

Well hey in Texas somewhere between 600 people, and 9000 people are projected to die.

What kind of projection is that?

Well their lieutenant governor thinks old people should just sacrifice themselves for the economy so....

[Mecca]

Here is a Texas style projection.....

My penis could be 4 inches long.....or it could be 7 or hell it could be 3 feet.

[kgrund]

Originally Posted by Donger

With which performance do you take issue?

Take your pick. They have virtually been significantly wrong in virtually every measurable. Assumptions and data input results in poor projections. Central point: take them all with a grain of salt.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by Mecca

Well their lieutenant governor thinks old people should just sacrifice themselves for the economy so....

[TLO]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

no we do not

I kind of do. But they change so drastically in 3 days time that it will give you whiplash.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

One with a large margin for error?

Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it ****ing pisses me off.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by kgrund

Take your pick. They have virtually been significantly wrong in virtually every measurable. Assumptions and data input results in poor projections. Central point: take them all with a grain of salt.

Well, what's your pick? Maybe just one?

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by TLO

Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it ****ing pisses me off.

I think you read it, so think of my hurricane analogy. Miami could have a forecast of 30" of rain if they take a direct hit or 1-2" if all they get is the edges of the storm. It doesn't seem all that helpful, but both are within a reasonable range of predictions.

Also, your frustration is probably why 90% of the models being used aren't made public.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by TLO

Why does the margin of error change so often? Why are there such extreme swings in the margin for error? I don't understand it and it ****ing pisses me off.

Have you read their explanation regarding uncertainty?

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by Mr. Plow

I'm wondering if Kansas will as a whole. I believe it expires this Sunday.

I havent looked at KS too much but that extension would be part of the core 4 so Joco and Wyandotte on the KS side. If the peak has been moved to April 28th it's hard to imagine Kelly wouldnt extend it for the rest of the state. She was very quick to act on this thing.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by DaFace

I think you read it, so think of my hurricane analogy. Miami could have a forecast of 30" of rain if they take a direct hit or 1-2" if all they get is the edges of the storm. It doesn't seem all that helpful, but both are within a reasonable range of predictions.

Also, your frustration is probably why 90% of the models being used aren't made public.

Your analogy makes sense. I understand that trying to predict this sort of thing is virtually impossible. Hence the wide variety of uncertainty.

I'm trying to find good/positive/hopeful news. I hoped the models might continue trending downward, but my hopes don't really matter in the end.