***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

That seems down to me? Or is it still a reporting time thing?

It is down. Their initial reports haven't been under 700 for quite some time. Now that may or may not hold the day but lately they have only been reporting once a day.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

That seems down to me? Or is it still a reporting time thing?

It was 758 yesterday. I think that NY reports every day around this time.

[dirk digler]

These numbers fall well short of "herd-immunity", which would require between 50% (for R0 of 2) and 66% (for R0 of 3) of the population recovered to prevent epidemic spread. 8/9

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) April 7, 2020

[TLO]

Did Cuomo say something about an announcement at 2pm? I was watching part of the press conference but then actually had to do some work

[Donger]

Herd immunity and COVID-19:

It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.

[Titty Meat]

Originally Posted by TLO

Did Cuomo say something about an announcement at 2pm? I was watching part of the press conference but then actually had to do some work

It has plateaued in NY

[TLO]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

It has plateaued in NY

Yeah but he said he had a second announcement that would have to wait for 2pm.

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

It has plateaued in NY

Good news.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

If we are going to open up our country anytime soon we have to have rapid testing so we can isolate\quarantine people away from everyone. We are a very long ways from being able to do that unfortunately.

If your goal is to be able catch enough people with the active infection of the virus to make a difference that allows opening up the country then I don’t think you have a realistic goal and the country would never reopen. There are too many things that change so quickly.

Let’s say you test 20% of California. That’s about 8 million people. The current rates are something like 15% positive so around 1.2 million positive cases, some false positives with others false negatives. Perhaps those even out but if you have a bunch of false negatives the testing was pointless for that group.

What can you possibly do that’s useful with that information? Sure you isolate the positives but you have 6.8 million people that can turn around and get the virus in a week. You also have a potential of 32 million other people who as far as you know are all at risk of getting the virus on top of the 6.8 million who tested negative.

So you roll out 8 million tests and really haven’t accomplished anything that would give you solid information to take action on besides continuing to sit and wait. The only thing you know for certain is that some percentage of your 1.2 million positives are infected. You don’t even know how many people they may have infected prior to being tested so they may have already spread it.

But if you tests 8 million people for antibodies you either remove or add them to the pool of potential infections. Anyone that has antibodies can actually start resuming a more normal existence. They do the shopping for the family, they work, etc. Then we get a much better idea of how widespread it is and how long it’s been happening and we can begin looking into more blood transfusion therapies on a larger scale.

[mr. tegu]

Originally Posted by O.city

I’m all about antibody testing but it’s gotta be specific and accurate. You **** up and give people false positives and that’s not ideal

Of course. But that’s no different of a problem than 20% of tests for the virus producing false negatives.

[petegz28]

Cases in NY thus far are down 3000+ from yesterday. That will probably change throughout the day but we can hope

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by mr. tegu

If your goal is to be able catch enough people with the active infection of the virus to make a difference that allows opening up the country then I don’t think you have a realistic goal and the country would never reopen. There are too many things that change so quickly.

Let’s say you test 20% of California. That’s about 8 million people. The current rates are something like 15% positive so around 1.2 million positive cases, some false positives with others false negatives. Perhaps those even out but if you have a bunch of false negatives the testing was pointless for that group.

What can you possibly do that’s useful with that information? Sure you isolate the positives but you have 6.8 million people that can turn around and get the virus in a week. You also have a potential of 32 million other people who as far as you know are all at risk of getting the virus on top of the 6.8 million who tested negative.

So you roll out 8 million tests and really haven’t accomplished anything that would give you solid information to take action on besides continuing to sit and wait. The only thing you know for certain is that some percentage of your 1.2 million positives are infected. You don’t even know how many people they may have infected prior to being tested so they may have already spread it.

But if you tests 8 million people for antibodies you either remove or add them to the pool of potential infections. Anyone that has antibodies can actually start resuming a more normal existence. They do the shopping for the family, they work, etc. Then we get a much better idea of how widespread it is and how long it’s been happening and we can begin looking into more blood transfusion therapies on a larger scale.

Once the virus dramatically slows down local governments can reopen but they have to be able to test and do contact tracing. The tests will have to be serology and rapid testing and if they get a positive that person will need to be quarantine and local health officials will have to do contact tracing. That is what SK and Germany are doing and this is how you can contain it.

Otherwise we will be back to lockdowns until a therapeutics\vaccine arrive.

[TLO]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Once the virus dramatically slows down local governments can reopen but they have to be able to test and do contact tracing. The tests will have to be serology and rapid testing and if they get a positive that person will need to be quarantine and local health officials will have to do contract tracing. That is what SK and Germany are doing and this is how you can contain it.

Otherwise we will be back to lockdowns until a therapeutics\vaccine arrive.

It's a shame we couldn't have done this in the first place. Maybe it wouldn't have been possible.

I'm afraid that all we're doing is cooling things off for a while and once we open things back up, we're going to be right back to where we are now, as you mention in your last sentence.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by TLO

It's a shame we couldn't have done this in the first place. Maybe it wouldn't have been possible.

I'm afraid that all we're doing is cooling things off for a while and once we open things back up, we're going to be right back to where we are now, as you mention in your last sentence.

Yep. I would love to hear someone's plan on how to open up without doing test\trace and without killing hundreds of thousands of people.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Yep. I would love to hear someone's plan on how to open up without doing test\trace and without killing hundreds of thousands of people.

This plan is called letting it all hang out.