***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I don't have a ton of trust in any numbers because there is no way in knowing what is accurate or not.

It seems you definitely trust certain data points from your comments.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

I would suspect that is impossible. The highest we have gotten is 200k tests in one day. In order for us to get to 1% it would have to be 500k a day.

We can’t say it’s impossible just get it done

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by KC Dan

Ok, I'll just give my example - Washington. Without a state order, schools and businesses shut down well before the gov order . For example, even though my company is essential (semiconductor) and exempt, we've been working from home since March 6th... but whatever you know more than anyone cause....and my son lives in Seattle and works in Bellvue and has been working from home even longer..

The question\tweet was about government stay at home orders not whether individual school districts\businesses did it before the official orders. I am very glad leaders of businesses and school districts did it earlier.

For example I live in MO and we got our official order last week but I have been working from home going on 4 weeks.

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Nice map. WTF is it supposed to be?

[Dartgod]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

The question\tweet was about government stay at home orders not whether individual school districts\businesses did it before the official orders. I am very glad leaders of businesses and school districts did it earlier.

For example I live in MO and we got our official order last week but I have been working from home going on 4 weeks.

I've been working from home since March 9. Starting my 5th week today.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Cool well we should be passing S. Korea soon on test per Million, then Germany. Etc...

Considering we are testing more per a day, wont be long till we pass alot of countries who are doing "better"

That's very aspirational. We're not passing Korea anytime soon. They're the gold standard and were very well prepared because they dealt with MERS a few decades ago. Maybe we might because they're past the curve and we're in the middle of it, but that doesn't mean we're testing better. But we will undoubtedly get much better and faster at testing and at least we're seeing some promising innovation. We just have too many institutional barriers that make it challenging. The biggest being that we're a huge country with lots of states who do things very differently. But if there's any huge bright side to this, it's that we're building a really good playbook for our next pandemic response.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

I've been working from home since March 9. Starting my 5th week today.

Us IT people can work from anywhere

[petegz28]

NY came in under 700 new deaths in their first report for the first time in a long time. That's great!

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Mecca

I don't have a ton of trust in any numbers because there is no way in knowing what is accurate or not.

So you are making your decisions based on?

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

That's very aspirational. We're not passing Korea anytime soon. They're the gold standard and were very well prepared because they dealt with MERS a few decades ago. Maybe we might because they're past the curve and we're in the middle of it, but that doesn't mean we're testing better. But we will undoubtedly get much better and faster at testing and at least we're seeing some promising innovation. We just have too many institutional barriers that make it challenging. The biggest being that we're a huge country with lots of states who do things very differently. But if there's any huge bright side to this, it's that we're building a really good playbook for our next pandemic response.

We had a playbook already.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by Dartgod

Nice map. WTF is it supposed to be?

I posted the link one post down.

[Mecca]

There's some business that are turning extra profits right now...

But spending on video gaming companies like Twitch and Nintendo is booming. Streaming services, such as Netflix and Spotify, are also seeing gains. https://t.co/TQmIJ2D3z4 pic.twitter.com/8zBuQlGTU1

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 11, 2020

We analyzed data from Earnest Research, which tracks and analyzes credit card and debit card purchases of nearly 6 million people in the U.S. Cash transactions aren't included, but the data provides a strong snapshot of the economic impact of the coronavirus. pic.twitter.com/6YOt6vreU9

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 11, 2020

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

That's very aspirational. We're not passing Korea anytime soon. They're the gold standard and were very well prepared because they dealt with MERS a few decades ago. Maybe we might because they're past the curve and we're in the middle of it, but that doesn't mean we're testing better. But we will undoubtedly get much better and faster at testing and at least we're seeing some promising innovation. We just have too many institutional barriers that make it challenging. The biggest being that we're a huge country with lots of states who do things very differently. But if there's any huge bright side to this, it's that we're building a really good playbook for our next pandemic response.

Actually





We are climbing around 100-150 in our tests per million every day. They are hardly growing at all.

So at our current rate we will be at 10k Per a million in 13 days.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

We had a playbook already.

I won't comment on that because it goes down a political rabbit hole and I frankly have no idea what was in pandemic response playbook. I would bet it might have helped some, but I'm skeptical we wouldn't still be woefully unprepared. We would still probably be way behind a country like Korea that had way more experience with pandemic response than we had. Having a plan in place is way different than learning from experience.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

I won't comment on that because it goes down a political rabbit hole and I frankly have no idea what was in pandemic response playbook. I would bet it might have helped some, but I'm skeptical we wouldn't still be woefully unprepared. We would still probably be way behind a country like Korea that had way more experience with pandemic response than we had. Having a plan in place is way different than learning from experience.

The playbook is actually online for you to read.

https://www.documentcloud.org/docume...ml#document/p2