***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by KCChiefsFan88

Teams used to hold their training camps outside of their home states on a regular basis... the Chiefs in River Falls, Wisconsin, the Saints in West Virginia, etc. Moving a team’s training camp out of their home state if needed is doable.

And the regular season start date is 170+ days from when the lockdown measures began in March.

If China ended their lockdown measures in about 70 days in Wuhan, Beijing and Shanghai, why is it impossible to see a realistic scenario where the NFL regular season can start on time with some adjustments such as reduced stadium capacities, fans required to wear face masks, etc.?

They have ended their lock downs but haven't started up with major sporting events and everybody is still wearing masks.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by TLO

Another random question that just popped into my mind.

You think they could just deliver serology tests to every house in America? It could just be a finger prick test or something easy like that.

I'm sure it won't be anywhere this easy, but I was pondering the idea earlier.

Plus the scale up of getting enough tests for everyone in the country would be crazy too.

Idk how they're gonna implement this.

C. Everett Koop sent a mailer to every house in America about AIDS in 1988. Printing paper is easier than mass producing an antibody test, but it could be done.

I look at it this way: I had to demonstrate proof of vaccination for work in healthcare, including antibody titers for MMR. We have vaccination records for millions and millions of children in the public school system.

Doing something similar for working adults is a massive undertaking, but it's not impossible, and some companies are already promoting finger stick tests.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

How the **** can this man drink shit like Pappys and make great money and still drink Busch!?!

I love a good steak but sometimes I crave a McDouble with only ketchup. Besides, you're much better off drinking a lawn beer after cutting brush than some kind of chocolate oatmeal stout.

[limested]

Originally Posted by Titty Meat

How the **** can this man drink shit like Pappys and make great money and still drink Busch!?!

Funny thing about pappys.... if you did blind taste testing with a group of ‘normal’ bourbon drinkers with pappy and a few $40-$100 bottles of bourbon the majority will choose one of the cheap bottles as best tasting.

The intrigue with Pappys is mostly that it is rare, not that it is the best.

[mlyonsd]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

C. Everett Koop sent a mailer to every house in America about AIDS in 1988. Printing paper is easier than mass producing an antibody test, but it could be done.

I look at it this way: I had to demonstrate proof of vaccination for work in healthcare, including antibody titers for MMR. We have vaccination records for millions and millions of children in the public school system.

Doing something similar for working adults is a massive undertaking, but it's not impossible, and some companies are already promoting finger stick tests.

How quickly does a blood test have to be processed for something like this?

[BleedingRed]

But for funsies IF getting the vaccine does include a microchip and you have to have it before you can “come back to society”

How many of you guys going to tell the government FU

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay....I don't think we need a model for that. But does their model take into account ancillary impacts of staying shut down for another 1.5 months?

You think people are shitting their pants about the economy now you just wait.....

We shouldn't need a model for that pete, but I think we do need a model for it. Reaching the summit doesn't mean you're off the mountain or out of danger, especially if you abandon the practices that got you to the summit in the first place.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

C. Everett Koop sent a mailer to every house in America about AIDS in 1988. Printing paper is easier than mass producing an antibody test, but it could be done.

I look at it this way: I had to demonstrate proof of vaccination for work in healthcare, including antibody titers for MMR. We have vaccination records for millions and millions of children in the public school system.

Doing something similar for working adults is a massive undertaking, but it's not impossible, and some companies are already promoting finger stick tests.

Even if we did get tests to everyone how do you process all those in any timely fashion?


The bottom line is there is going to come a point that we are just going to have to take a chance. If we wait until we know it's 100% safe we are never leaving our houses again.

[limested]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

But for funsies IF getting the vaccine does include a microchip and you have to have it before you can “come back to society”

How many of you guys going to tell the government FU

I might cave in not because I like the idea of it but because of having asthma I am high risk and assume if I were to get infected it won’t go well.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Okay....I don't think we need a model for that. But does their model take into account ancillary impacts of staying shut down for another 1.5 months?

You think people are shitting their pants about the economy now you just wait.....

Well no but it would be for an additional 30 days and alot of states already have lock downs to mid May.

Originally Posted by TLO

I guess the question becomes how much faith do you put in that model?

50-50. I don't have much faith in our testing though.

https://mayoclinicproceedings.org/pb...p_ft95_4_4.pdf

Mayo Clinic announced the main test for detecting coronavirus may have a drawback.

According to its study, the test is very good at detecting positive cases of COVID-19, but the weakness is in detecting negative cases. That means a situation could arise where someone tests negative and has no symptoms, when really they have had coronavirus all along.

[Monticore]

Originally Posted by limested

Funny thing about pappys.... if you did blind taste testing with a group of ‘normal’ bourbon drinkers with pappy and a few $40-$100 bottles of bourbon the majority will choose one of the cheap bottles as best tasting.

The intrigue with Pappys is mostly that it is rare, not that it is the best.

The same way some people prefer fake maple syrup over the real stuff, which to me is sacrilegious.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by mlyonsd

How quickly does a blood test have to be processed for something like this?

That's beyond my knowledge. I don't know much of anything about reagents for antibody testing and their stability. You probably don't want it sitting in a 115 degree metal mailbox for a week, though.

In most cases, you probably want it so you can go back to work, so distributing them to employers and having each employee take the test to show immunity would be the fastest way. It might be something closer to the mass vaccination campaigns enacted in the second half of the 20th century against smallpox and polio.

[limested]

Originally Posted by Monticore

The same way some people prefer fake maple syrup over the real stuff, which to me is sacrilegious.

If I had to make a choice that was pappys and fake syrup or old crow and real maple syrup I would not hesitate to worship the crow.

After a few drinks you forget about the taste. You can’t say after a few bites you forget it is log cabin syrup.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

We shouldn't need a model for that pete, but I think we do need a model for it. Reaching the summit doesn't mean you're off the mountain or out of danger, especially if you abandon the practices that got you to the summit in the first place.

The model to me appears to me more curve fitting than forecasting. It seems the model predicts something, the model turns out to not even be close, they input data that fits it back towards the real data, they make another forecast, the model is way off again, they input more data and so on and so on.


I know that's not really what is happening but it seems like it.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Well no but it would be for an additional 30 days and alot of states already have lock downs to mid May.



50-50. I don't have much faith in our testing though.

I think you got to the end of May at best. If we don't start easing up in places by then you're gonna have an entirely new list of shit to deal with.