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12-20-2017, 11:19 AM | #1906 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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He wouldn't have had a no-trade in STL; 10-5 rights wouldn't have triggered at that point. But I don't care - his contract would've been a virtual no-trade clause. As for the return - not impressed by Arroyo. Shrock appears to be a far better player to my eyes. Woods may be the most intriguing part in the package and even he's just a college pitcher picking on guys he's clearly more advance then. He's a scouting report guy - no way of really projecting his performance yet. A 22 yr old beating up the South Atlantic League doesn't mean much, especially when he's still walking way too many guys and putting up a 1.4 WHIP against guys he should be wrecking. The landscape is littered with average sized righties who throw 97 and never find their command. |
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Posts: 62,736
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12-20-2017, 11:52 AM | #1907 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Molina puts a lot of balls in play. With the way the lineup is set-up in front of him and given his superior ISO to Wong, you're giving him more chances to drive in runs. While Molina is on the wrong side of the aging curve and Wong is on the right side, you also have to account for what is it that drove the difference in their offensive production. As a hitter, Wong was 3.7 runs above average (removing baserunning). In comparison, Molina was about 4.5 runs below average. So, where did those 8 runs come from? Wong had the highest BABIP of his career by a significant margin despite little increase in his hard hit %, and a LD% that was lower than his career norms, which points to a lot of that being driven by luck. In contrast, Molina's BABIP was the lowest he'd had since 2010 despite a significant increase in his hard hit percentage (36.4%, previous career high 31.7%) with his LD% being within half a point of his career norms. Now, some of that lower BABIP is due to an increase in his flyball percentage. Finally, Wong was 10 points below average against LHP and 12 points above average against RHP last year. Matt Carpenter was 15 points below average against LHP and 34 points above league against RHP. Fowler was league average when turned around and 28 points better than average when hitting lefty. Wong isn't Matt Adams against LHP. I think you're fine to leave him in If you remove the underlying noise, you get two different kinds of players whose offensive skillsets end up creating a roughly similar number of runs: 1) A lead-footed free swinger with tremendous plate coverage who has better superior power 2) A fleet-footed player who walks slightly more and strikes out slightly less than average who doesn't have a lot of pop in his bat. Given what the Cardinals have in the first six slots in the lineup, I'd rather have Molina driving the ball into the gaps or putting one over the fence occasionally. Overall, I think you make a compelling argument. I just happen to disagree given the above information. |
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Posts: 74,938
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12-20-2017, 11:55 AM | #1908 |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Fair 'nuff.
I'm also presuming a little more growth from Wong and that Molina's 2016 was his 'Indian Summer' so to speak and that he's going to decline even further in '18; back to his '14/'15 levels of being a borderline offensive liability. At that point I don't believe they'd be similarly productive if distinctly different offensive players. I think Wong would simply be superior. It doesn't really matter - as as been noted, Meathead's going to bat him 5th or 6th either way. |
Posts: 62,736
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12-20-2017, 12:25 PM | #1909 | |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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12-20-2017, 12:26 PM | #1910 |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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Posts: 5,675
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12-20-2017, 12:30 PM | #1911 | |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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12-20-2017, 01:49 PM | #1912 |
Has a particular set of skills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: On the water
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Gyrko is Rolen?
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12-20-2017, 02:06 PM | #1913 |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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Posts: 5,675
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12-20-2017, 02:08 PM | #1914 |
MVP
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Jabip
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Posts: 11,058
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12-20-2017, 02:33 PM | #1915 |
Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: 41°59.4′N 87°39.6'W
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Bob Nightengale just tweeted out that now that Evan Longoria is off the board, Mike Moustakas could be falling right into the Cardinals lap.
1) Does Nightengale have any credibility? 2) This is the first I have heard about any interest from STL with Moustakas. 3) What are your thoughts on Moustakas compared to what we have? Go. |
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12-20-2017, 02:35 PM | #1916 |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Nightengale has no credibility.
The end. |
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12-20-2017, 03:21 PM | #1917 | |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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12-20-2017, 03:22 PM | #1918 |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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Moustakas had arguably his best year and posted a 1.8 WAR. Gyorko was 3.6 last year.
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Posts: 5,675
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12-20-2017, 03:29 PM | #1919 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
But I think Logan Morrison is actually a better LH hitter and would come cheaper and with less term. If you wanted to, you could put him and Martinez in a platoon at 1b with Carpenter/Gyorko in a platoon at 3b and end up with some hellacious offensive performances for your troubles. That would make far more sense than Moustakas. |
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Posts: 62,736
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12-20-2017, 03:54 PM | #1920 | |
Comfortably Numb
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
I was looking at Morrison the other day too, and he is intriguing and that scenario with Maddon running the club would be something that could work nicely. I just think limiting meathead’s options are probably in our best interests. Fangraphs now has projected as an 88 win team, which sounds about right to me. One reason to not be too anxious right now and sell off any assets low. We might be able to add some names not currently available in June or July. It’s only one stat but the one position we had a negative wins above average was catcher. Relief pitching was also negative. That doesn’t factor in Ozuna. I think that 88-90 wins is not far fetched if we do nothing more. |
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