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#166 |
GBM 8-12-15
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Dayton, Oh.
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Posts: 59,997
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#167 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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In May 2007 gasoline prices were higher than after hurricane Katrina wrecked a third of the nation's refining capacity. Gasoline prices are higher than ever before. If we are to believe that high prices are not a result of price fixing or price gouging, then we are actually seeing the result of an imbalance between low stockpiles and increasing summer demand for gasoline.
2007: Fears new problems at US refineries will constrict gasoline supplies already at unusually low pre-summer levels (May 2007) A refinery fire in Sweden Nigerians running wild again this year Trouble at many of the nation's refineries US inventory stockpiles at lowest level since 1956 Extended planned refinery maintenance programs Excuses given in the two previous years (2005-2006) mirror what we are hearing in 2007: Concern a storm in the Caribbean will become a hurricane and hit petroleum installations in the Gulf of Mexico Fresh worries Iran will miss a deadline to halt its nuclear program (8-18-06) Oil fell $2 to below $75 a barrel today after Britain said it had thwarted a plot to blow up aircraft in trans-Atlantic flight. (8-10-06) BP Plc said it's shutting the Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska (8-06-06) Depletion at some of the world's largest fields including Mexico's Cantarell Three Filipino oil and gas workers were abducted in southern Nigeria (8-04-06) Fears that the Israeli-Lebanese conflict could spread to Middle East oil producers = $78.40 per barrel Fear of Nigerian spies (7-31-06) Explosions on Nigerian pipelines, Israel's military action, and tensions with Iran = $76 per barrel (7-13-06) Tension over problems with North Korea cause record high prices (7-10-06) Strong demand and worries about Iran; record high above $75 a barrel (7-05-06) Momentum from strong demand and geopolitical worries World oil prices advanced further as the market focused on tight supplies of US gasoline (6-22-06) Congress has resisted accessing the billions of barrels' worth of oil and natural gas in our (U.S.) offshore continental shelf (added 6-17-06) Mixed signals from Iran over a package of incentives offered by the West for it to give up uranium enrichment (added 6-16-06) Militants kidnapped five Koreans at a natural gas plant operated by Royal Dutch Shell in Nigeria Iran's supreme leader threatened to disrupt global supplies if the West punishes Tehran over its nuclear program A refinery fire cut production at a Valero Energy Corp plant on June 1, 2006 An attack on a Nigerian oil rig which included kidnappings Crude futures rose amid expectations of a spike in motor fuel demand during the summer driving season, and as forecasters warn of hurricane activity in the coming months. A barrel of light crude jumped $1.21 to $72.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on 30 May 2006. President Bush's Blunders some say George Bush added $15 to a barrel of oil Add $15 to the price of each barrel of oil Concern of new predictions of new hurricanes for 2006 A letter from Iran's president to President Bush failed to move the countries closer to an agreement Rising resource nationalism in South America have added to oil-market worries An expected decline in gasoline stocks (note that this excuse was reversed in 2 days as stocks increased) Bullish buying by investors A refinery outage in Italy Supply disruptions in Africa Tight petroleum supplies amid soaring demand could drive crude oil prices above $100 a barrel by this winter (2006-2007), energy experts warned yesterday. Speculators and profit takers bid up the market Bush stops filling oil reserves while experts say refining is the real issue Changes from MTBE to Ethanol cause refining and delivery problems Problems continue in Nigera Concern about meeting demand for fuel as summer approaches (2006) The Iranian government wants nuclear power, but purchased long range missiles while acting like loose cannons -- Beginning of excuses for 2005 -- U.S. government reported in November an unexpected decline in oil supplies Concern about meeting demand for fuel as winter approaches Concern US refineries aren't recovering fast enough from the hurricane season Tropical Storm Wilma - Oct 17 2005 - could move in to the Gulf of Mexico Almost 19 percent of the U.S. total refining capacity is idle French refiners might sit on the sidelines due to strikes Fears of inadequate heating oil supplies this winter Speculation about natural gas shortages Debate about trade and budget deficits as US buys more fuel overseas Are they stretching it with this one? "Natural gas yesterday surged to a record on concern that a tropical storm system developing in the Caribbean Sea may develop into another hurricane that could cut production that has been crippled by two storms in the last month." - from September 28, 2005 And we continue... Storms have exposed the soft underbelly of the U.S. energy system U.S. Gulf of Mexico production remained completely shut because of Hurricane Rita Four refineries remain shut because of damage caused by Katrina Tropical Storm Rita will impede efforts to restore production in the Gulf of Mexico Department of Energy said energy costs in the United States for the upcoming winter would be the highest in a decade Gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange sent prices 25 percent higher in less than a week - Sep 1, 2005 US production recovered more slowly than expected after Katrina Eight major refineries are shut down squeezing U.S. refining capacity Hurricane Katrina appears to be gathering power, causing big problems Hurricane Katrina damaged platforms and ports A fire broke out at a Tesoro refinery in Martinez, California Oil is effected by a superhot, panic-ridden California market Iran parliament rejects president's choice of oil minister Tropical Storm Katrina could threaten oil production in the Gulf of Mexico A fire at a massive refining complex in Venezuela In Nigeria villagers closed down a pumping facility A 2 percent slump in US supplies signaled a thirsty market In Ecuador protesters forced a halt to production The oil market has not fully convinced itself that more than $60 is sustainable US stockpile data expected to show a drop in gasoline inventories Events in the oil-rich Middle East conspire to keep prices high Nippon Oil Corp. suspended operations after a strong earthquake in Japan Chevron Corp.'s refinery in El Segundo, California, shutdown for 25 days following a fire The hot summer helped keep natural gas inventories at worrisomely low levels ConocoPhillips' Wood River, Ill., refinery, was shut after a thunderstorm caused a power failure Premcor Inc.'s refinery in Memphis, Tenn., was closed due to a power outage If sanctioned by the U.S. and U.N., Iran would cut back on oil producing The hot Chinese economy Fear of a supply disruption Rumours of terrorist threats to Saudi refineries US embassy in Saudi Arabia closed for two days Iran's decision to restart its nuclear program Summer is the peak driving season in the US Bombings in London Diplomatic showdown over Iran's nuclear program The recent death of King Fahd Refinery outages in the United States It is a product of trading strategies Dicey conditions in oil producing nations Weather related problems Continued worldwide high demand Strong economic growth in the US, which consumes a quarter of the world's fuel Excessive fuel use by the US military, which use a third of US supplies An explosion at the BP plant in Texas City, near Houston Aging plants that are having difficulty maintaining output at high levels Major oil reserves are becoming harder to find Major oil reserves are more expensive to exploit Strong demand from India Lack of OPEC to increase oil production Canada, which supplies oil to the US, recently signed a deal with China Insurgents have not halted their attacks against the US military in Iraq Insurgents have not halted their attacks against the new government in Baghdad Anxiety over terrorism and the Iraq war Some refineries have had to cut back production because they've been running so hard Decreasing production in the North Sea There are only about 1.5 million barrels of spare daily production that can be used in case of emergency Rebel attacks on pipelines in India A Sunoco refinery fire in Philadelphia The threat of hurricanes A provision in the energy bill signed by President Bush removes protections relative to MTBE Without MTBE refiners have less flexibility in reformulating gasoline, which could drive prices up The dollar is declining in relation to other benchmark currencies No giant new oil fields have been found in twenty years Critical items such as steel casing and tubing are now in short supply and expensive Drilling and operating costs have soared Hurricane Dennis, July 11, 2005 Hurricane Emily Concerns that demand was straining the world's capacity to pump and refine crude oil Nigerian rebels have warned oil companies to shut down production in the Niger delta If Chinese demand were comparable to US demand China would consume more than what is currently being produced Yukos bankruptcy where Yukos is a major supplier of upwards of 2% of the world's oil supply Chavez recall vote in unstable Venezuela Darfur's rebels and supposedly Khartoum backed militias, where the real prize is the oil wealth of the Sudan Fear of lower US petroleum reserves OPEC's lack of spare capacity means they can no longer control the market Sabotaged pipelines in Iraq have added to the escalating price of oil Fear of cold weather in the winter of 2005 - 2006 Fear that global oil reserves will be entirely depleted by 2038 Concerns over Iran’s decision to resume uranium-conversion activities |
Posts: 129,179
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#168 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Unless you think supply and demand aren't factors...
It's actually a combination of three things: 1) It's peak driving season, so demand is very high. 6% greater than last year, in fact. 2) Since it's summer, refiners are still dealing with the mandated summer blends. 3) To try to meet demand, refineries are operating at near 100%. When that happens, more things break. So, I suppose it could be a big BP conspiracy to actually intentionally limit the product they produce during peak driving season... Or... |
Posts: 184,681
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#169 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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![]() ![]() Jesus indeed, Pete. |
Posts: 184,681
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#170 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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U.S. oil futures on Friday sank below $40 a barrel for the first time since the Great Recession and were on track for an eighth straight weekly loss—the longest streak of weekly losses since 1986.
Prices sank under $40 intraday shortly after data from Baker Hughes BHI, -2.43% showed that the number of active U.S. oil drilling rigs rose 2 to 674 as of Aug. 21. Weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data and a sharp declines in the U.S. stock market also spurred worries about the outlook for energy demand. After tapping a low of $39.86 a barrel, WTI crude for delivery in October CLV5, -2.95% remained down $1.39, or 3.4%, at $39.93 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the most-active contract, prices were set for their lowest settlement since February 2009 and are on track for a weekly loss of 5.7%, their eighth weekly decline in a row. |
Posts: 184,681
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#171 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Crude plummeting today. Now well below $40 at $38.90, down 3.83% right now.
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Posts: 184,681
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#172 |
You gotta kill a few people
Join Date: Sep 2007
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If I don't see gas prices at or below $2 here in the next few weeks I'm paying Donger a visit
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Posts: 45,106
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#173 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 184,681
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#174 |
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Fort Worth, TX
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Posts: 24,946
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#175 |
Supporter
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Hollywood, CA
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$3.15 yesterday at the Burbank Costco. I got caught in the gas line and was stuck for 22 minutes.
$4.29 at the Chevron nearest my home. |
Posts: 88,960
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#176 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 184,681
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#177 |
sorta mod-ish
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: KC North
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Posts: 102,501
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#178 | |
sorta mod-ish
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: KC North
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Quote:
Tell me more about how broke dick our refineries are, again. |
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Posts: 102,501
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#179 |
"Think BOOM!"
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 33.675° N 106.475° W
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Posts: 184,681
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#180 |
GBM 8-12-15
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Dayton, Oh.
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Based on what happened 7 years ago, if crude keeps falling, and these refineries get their heads outta their asses, we should see gasoline fall to around $1.50.
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Posts: 59,997
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