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04-06-2020, 11:51 AM | #17326 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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And do you really feel qualified to speak to what steps/processes/policies Spain undertook before declaring them remotely useful as a comparison? And FFS...China again. Why do we care about anything China is saying? My point regarding healthcare workers in NYC is that they are going to get sick anyway. They're surrounded by it - but how many of those got it BECAUSE of a PPE shortage? How many of them didn't just take a mask off right? Or get it in the subway? Or at home? Or would've gotten it with brand new equipment because the stuff isn't 100% effective. Again, there's little evidence right now that the one place we can point to as ground zero has experience a massive shock to their healthcare system BECAUSE of an equipment shortage. Or even that time would ultimately have solved said shortage because again - we have equipment RIGHT NOW that we just aren't getting to them (hurray bureaucracy!). |
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Posts: 62,499
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04-06-2020, 11:51 AM | #17327 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Missouri
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Interesting comparison.
.... and mother**** China forever. |
Posts: 8,643
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04-06-2020, 11:54 AM | #17328 | |
Please squeeze
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Clinton, MO
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Posts: 66,634
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04-06-2020, 11:56 AM | #17329 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
First blush is that yes, heavy testing, both fast-response infection and serological, combined with significant contact tracing and isolation efforts is the best path forward. But as you think more and more about the numbers involved and the scope of that endeavor, it just seems less and less feasible when you're still at an N north of 300 million. So we just ride this coaster up and down for a year? Hoping that every hill is just a little smaller because of a reduced N and increased ability to test/isolate? I don't think that takes human nature into account very well... |
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Posts: 62,499
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04-06-2020, 11:59 AM | #17330 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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The point behind the distancing measures isn't to get the hospitals to peak capacity--the point behind the measures is to get the R0 as low as possible so the virus dies out and the hospitals don't have to reach peak capacity. If all of the hospitals in this area end up not needing a separate COVID isolation unit that's a big ****ing win, not a waste. |
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04-06-2020, 11:59 AM | #17331 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Best bet would probably be a wave of class-actions to muddy the causation arguments that will yield massive damage to the hospitals but only serve to make the attorneys rich while the plaintiffs end up getting a few thousand each and maybe some medical bills written off. I mean yeah, you're gonna have late night 'mesothelioma' style cottage industry commercials popping up for years, but I don't think this will yield a true sea change. |
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Posts: 62,499
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04-06-2020, 12:01 PM | #17332 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
Oh...that's their plan? That it just goes away? Well I guess that changes everything. I don't think that's their plan at all because I don't think anybody expects that to happen. Ultimately I think you're working from a seriously faulty premise in trying to analyze their approach. At least I hope you are because if THEY are working from that premise, I think we're proper ****ed. |
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Posts: 62,499
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04-06-2020, 12:05 PM | #17333 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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You reduce the R0 by implementing the distancing measures and utilizing masks in public to a far greater extent. If you have greater mask wearing in public, you have less exposure, which then makes it easier to track and trace. |
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04-06-2020, 12:07 PM | #17334 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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04-06-2020, 12:12 PM | #17335 | |
The Beast Inside Your Head
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Parts Unknown
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Posts: 26,021
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04-06-2020, 12:13 PM | #17336 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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I just don't see that happening here. We're gonna need dozens of similarly outfitted and capable 'response teams' to pull of anything approaching that. Again, just seems far-fetched to me. You're looking at an unprecedented level of man-power and intervention. And even then, it's only slowed for as long as all of those measures remain in place; so years. The 'N' isn't necessarily the people you're 'investigating' but rather their contacts. Those remain unwieldy unless you maintain things at the level they are now (which then again gets back to definitions; how do you define your 'social distancing' measures above? And for how long?). I'd like it to work - sure. I simply don't think it can. Not on this scale and not for any appreciable period of time. |
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Posts: 62,499
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04-06-2020, 12:13 PM | #17337 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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NY already ahead of yesterday's count for new deaths and still have their evening report to come in.
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Posts: 129,408
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04-06-2020, 12:14 PM | #17338 |
Prestige Worldwide
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Spring Hill, KS
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Posts: 18,455
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04-06-2020, 12:16 PM | #17339 |
Supporter
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Olathe, Ks
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Bad day for Ks, 25 new cases and 3 new deaths. Mo has 3 new deaths but no reported new cases as of yet.
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Posts: 129,408
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04-06-2020, 12:18 PM | #17340 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
Again, I don't think that's the plan because it simply never has been. And because of the novel nature of this one, it's going to even more difficult/impossible to pull off. I mean getting it below 2 seems plenty doable, but the idea that we're putting policies in place with the idea of driving it below 1 over any timeline of less than 2-3 years seems completely out there to me. That's ambitious to the point of folly. |
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