***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[petegz28]

Mo so far this morning; 8 new deaths, no new cases reported so far.....

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by O.city

So none of the models that were put forth have been correct yet. So that’s good in terms of non deaths

But what is the exit strategy here?

When new infections are down to a "relative" few, and we have adequate testing, contact tracking and isolation/quarantine capacity to isolate hot spots to quickly quell new infections, we can resume most activities. Probably 4 to 6 weeks? Still no sports, no concerts, or other large gatherings. See how it goes. If the cases start spiking again, we may have to go through cycles of lockdown (the sooner you start, the shorter it will be) until we have a vaccine.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

If the initial models are wrong (it’s not that they were really wrong they didn’t have the correct parameters it seems) you’ve gotta make decisions on current data

We can’t stay locked up forever

I tend to agree. I think we can also agree that regardless of what decision is made and when, it will be 2nd and 3rd guessed by several people for several reasons.

[Donger]

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist, says the US does not have the coronavirus under control, “to say we have it under control, Margaret, would be a false statement. We are struggling to get it under control.”

Fauci warned Americans in an interview on CBS with Margaret Brennan, that “it is going to be a bad week” ahead as there is an escalation in cases, but that “within a week or a little bit more” we should see the curve begin to flatten.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by cdcox

When new infections are down to a "relative" few, and we have adequate testing, contact tracking and isolation/quarantine capacity to isolate hot spots to quickly quell new infections, we can resume most activities. Probably 4 to 6 weeks? Still no sports, no concerts, or other large gatherings. See how it goes. If the cases start spiking again, we may have to go through cycles of lockdown (the sooner you start, the shorter it will be) until we have a vaccine.

But the new infections may not be new, we may just be finding them with testing. Hospital rates and such just aren’t spiking like they were projected to.

You can’t tank the economy for that long

[PAChiefsGuy]

Originally Posted by Donger

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist, says the US does not have the coronavirus under control, “to say we have it under control, Margaret, would be a false statement. We are struggling to get it under control.”

Fauci warned Americans in an interview on CBS with Margaret Brennan, that “it is going to be a bad week” ahead as there is an escalation in cases, but that “within a week or a little bit more” we should see the curve begin to flatten.

We'll get there. Just going to take time.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I tend to agree. I think we can also agree that regardless of what decision is made and when, it will be 2nd and 3rd guessed by several people for several reasons.

That’s just part of being a decision maker

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That's my worry as well. I am afraid we are falling into the paralysis by analysis hole. We are going to be too scared to clear anything because even if the data is saying good things people are going to be worrying about the other shoe to drop, so to speak.

There are going to be people who want to further things for reasons other than health concerns.

There are going to be people who want to rush things for other than health concerns.

There are people who are going to say health concerns are so bad we need to stay shut down.

There are people who are going to say health concerns have improved enough to start getting back to normal.

Even when things open up, a lot of things are going to come down to individual choice. As one example, you open restaurants, a lot of people are going to avoid that for a while. The industry and all the people who work in it will be suffering for a while. Opening things up isn't going to be a panacea for the economy. The hangover will be long and there isn't anything anyone can do to change that.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I know this is an anxious time, but the worst thing you can be right now is impatient. If I have a patient getting antibiotics for sepsis, I don't stop the antibiotics whenever their CRP and lactate levels start to drop. All I'm going to do in that case is cause a rebound infection and make things worse, because the therapies I previously used may not as be as effective and the patient will clinically worsen.

We don't just need to get to the peak: we need to get past the peak and then down the slope on the other side so as to avoid another peak that is as bad or worse than the first.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist, says the US does not have the coronavirus under control, “to say we have it under control, Margaret, would be a false statement. We are struggling to get it under control.”

Fauci warned Americans in an interview on CBS with Margaret Brennan, that “it is going to be a bad week” ahead as there is an escalation in cases, but that “within a week or a little bit more” we should see the curve begin to flatten.

He also said this.....so just keep some objectivity

Jan. Flashback: Dr. Fauci Said Coronavirus ‘is not a major threat to the people of the United States’

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by cdcox

Even when things open up, a lot of things are going to come down to individual choice. As one example, you open restaurants, a lot of people are going to avoid that for a while. The industry and all the people who work in it will be suffering for a while. Opening things up isn't going to be a panacea for the economy. The hangover will be long and there isn't anything anyone can do to change that.

Maybe, a lot of people might also rush them because they have been locked down for 2 months as well...

[O.city]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

I know this is an anxious time, but the worst thing you can be right now is impatient. If I have a patient getting antibiotics for sepsis, I don't stop the antibiotics whenever their CRP and lactate levels start to drop. All I'm going to do in that case is cause a rebound infection and make things worse, because the therapies I previously used may not as be as effective and the patient will clinically worsen.

We don't just need to get to the peak: we need to get past the peak and then down the slope on the other side so as to avoid another peak that is as bad or worse than the first.

I just think we need to do more to figure out when and how much the actual peak is.

Maybe we’re already there?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by O.city

But the new infections may not be new, we may just be finding them with testing. Hospital rates and such just aren’t spiking like they were projected to.

You can’t tank the economy for that long

Deaths will be going up for at least a couple of weeks yet. We're not going to open up the economy with 1000 people a day dying from this. The average person just won't buy into thinking it is a good idea.

[petegz28]

And just FTR, I am not saying Dr. Fauci is wrong. I am saying he is human and has been wrong about this virus before. So we do need to listen to him but he isn't necessarily right by default either.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by Pants

Back to the "it came from a lab" claim.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...to-wuhan-labs/

Grain of salt.

Put it in DC, not here.