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04-04-2020, 09:57 PM | #16651 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I would assume just being able to donate in that area would be pretty random but without knowing the specifics it’s hard to say
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04-04-2020, 09:58 PM | #16652 |
In Search of a Life
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Is there a chance the Ro is like 4.5 or 5 and it was just passed along with all the asymptomatic people for a while and we didn’t know what we were actually looking at these past few months?
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04-04-2020, 10:08 PM | #16653 |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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That's not really randomness, though. This is really just a series of case reports. No control groups, no randomization process, very small sample size in the area with the highest density of cases on Earth (over 60 percent of Italy's deaths are in Lombardy). And that's all assuming the data itself is accurate (haven't seen it reported elsewhere).
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04-04-2020, 10:09 PM | #16654 | |
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Location: Austin
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Quote:
Too many unknowns still, it would be a very good start for us to get random serology testing rolled out. (and yes the Italian report is not very random at all) |
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04-04-2020, 10:11 PM | #16655 | |
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04-04-2020, 10:18 PM | #16656 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
In addition to R0, there is also the serial interval, which is the measurement of how long it takes someone to transmit the disease to everyone they infect, which is somewhere around 5 days according to a paper in NEJM. If you have an R of 5 with a serial interval of 5, then after three generations a single person will have infected, on average, 125 people after 15 days and 15625 people after 30 days. That seems...high. |
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04-04-2020, 10:20 PM | #16657 |
Sometimes it's black and white
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: California
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I'm with HJ on this. If that many people already had it and no one noticed, then how do you explain the huge spike in deaths NYC is going through?
Either NYC shouldn't be spiking now or other places should have seen death rates spike. It would be great news if true but I'm not buying. |
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04-04-2020, 10:21 PM | #16658 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
Regarding healthcare workers, over 60 physicians in Italy have died of COVID-19. Of those, about 38% were GPs and would not have been performing intubations or other aerosolizing procedures that would induce a large viral load into the air, which potentially complicates the theory that initial viral load determines your clinical course. |
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04-04-2020, 10:23 PM | #16659 | |
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Location: Confusion, USA
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Quote:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opini...us/ar-BB122vLd Evidently health care workers and others getting very sick may be due to the amount of virus they’re being exposed to... |
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04-04-2020, 10:25 PM | #16660 | |
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04-04-2020, 10:26 PM | #16661 | |
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04-04-2020, 10:28 PM | #16662 | |
Now you've pissed me off!
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
It's an operating hypothesis, but not definitive. |
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04-04-2020, 10:31 PM | #16663 | |
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04-04-2020, 10:32 PM | #16664 | |
In Search of a Life
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04-04-2020, 10:34 PM | #16665 |
Has a particular set of skills
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