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Most Valuable Villain
Join Date: Dec 2006
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Draft Trade Calculator
Someone finally put together all of the trade value charts together into one app. I've only been playing around with this thing for a little bit but **** if it isn't valuable.
https://rbsdm.com/stats/trade-calculator-app/ ![]() That's just a test trade to move up from 31 to 18. You can see the value from each of the charts and at the bottom is the difference along with the value of that difference. You can also change the discount of future picks and whether that trade up is for a QB. |
Posts: 92,306
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#2 |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Michigan
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Interesting little calc but I'm left wanting a lot more functionality lol.
Here's some other references to the charts in there: |
Posts: 12,685
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#3 | |
Most Valuable Villain
Join Date: Dec 2006
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Quote:
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Posts: 92,306
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#4 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Michigan
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Quote:
From what I've seen in practice, it seems like the Hill model is really close early on (like first 3 rounds), then it tends to deviate more towards the Johnson model. I might take the time one of these years to actually dive into the historical trades and develop my own but its a project. I do like a bit of the stuff out there from Baldwin and Fitzgerald on salary cap value effects and things like that but I haven't seen alot in their literature on actual correlation to real trades. |
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#5 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Posts: 60,883
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#6 |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Michigan
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Posts: 12,685
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#7 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2015
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Posts: 6,270
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#8 |
Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2008
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The trade value chart seems off on next years value in compensation. I’ve heard that the value of a pick next is half what it would be this year. And that seems like a ridiculous discount to me. Would you discount a pick by half for next year? For example, say the 49ers offered their first next year for our 2nd and 4th this year, that feels like we are robbing the 49ers? Am I looking at this the wrong way? Why is one year worth half in trade value or a substantial discount? That seems like a bargain and I’d take next years compensation as often as I could.
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Posts: 2,367
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#9 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
What I've seen recently is that it's a 20% discount for most teams though it depends on the situation on the ground. The 20% discount is typically presuming that a team that's good/bad in year 1 will be similarly good/bad in year 2. Though we can look at roster situations and know that not to be the case. So teams will adjust a bit accordingly. But yeah, the discount by a round thing is largely dead and I've not seen anyone suggest discounting by 50% but it does seem like 20% is a largely accepted baseline at this point. |
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#10 |
Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2008
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I wonder if it’s the best strategy for the long term to trade for picks in next years draft. If you can get a 30-40% discount for waiting one year, couldn’t that be a way to give us a better advantage? We are always picking at the back end of the draft and the chiefs are a huge disadvantage in acquiring talent.
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Posts: 2,367
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#11 | |
MVP
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Michigan
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Quote:
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Posts: 12,685
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#12 |
MVP
Join Date: Jan 2015
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How about #32 + #64 + 2025 2nd = #20 + #52 from PIT?
...we still have TEN 2025 early RD 3 pick. |
Posts: 6,270
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#13 | |
Sauntering Vaguely Downwards
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Columbia, Mo
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Quote:
I think next year's 2nd is the most likely asset we have to see moved in this draft and getting up into the early 20s and 50s with it is almost an ideal use of the asset. That puts us right in a nice pocket for a LT and WR with those two picks. |
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#14 |
Most Valuable Villain
Join Date: Dec 2006
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Posts: 92,306
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#15 |
Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2008
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Interesting article….
Offer Jones $100 this year or $274 next year and his answer will unquestionably be the latter. But offer him a third-rounder this year or a second-rounder next year and he’s likely to think it over a little longer. https://theathletic.com/5416007/2024...serId=12657204 |
Posts: 2,367
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