***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[burt]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

And once again....

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by O.city

Ideally, yes. Immediate testing which would allow you to inform people of positives and isolate them.

Not locking them up though. As we've seen, the general public here will do things to help other people if you ask them and tell them the truth.

Ideally? Yes. Practically? No. You can't trust "people". People suck.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

Ideally we would do what SK or Germany is doing where we have rapid testing everywhere and if you are infected you are quarantined away from everyone, like in a hotel or something. Then they trace all your movements etc to see if there is community spread.

We also need serology testing, therapeutics and hopefully a vaccine but that goes without saying.

What's the population and land mass of both SK and Germany?

Ideally I agree with you.

And FYI, Germany is #4 on the list of total cases.

[Donger]

NY already reporting 731 deaths. To be expected, I guess, but that's horrible.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There is a lot of people and "experts" trying to have it both ways. On one hand they base a lot of these models and their statements on the data at hand to paint a very dire scenario. Then on the other they say, well we really have no idea how many people REALLY have it and don't have symptoms or are so mild they work through it, etc.

So the logical conclusion is they are both right and wrong. We have to assume that the people serious enough to get their ass to a hospital are legit if they tested positive. But then we also have to assume that there are literally millions of people who have bee exposed and are either not that serious or immune or asymptomatic or whatever term fits your fancy.

So if that is the case then you have to ask yourself are we going too far? My only argument for what is happening right now is to keep hospitals from being overrun and giving time to find suitable treatments.

But this fear or a re-spike in the fall, which we will get and which does admit to a degree that warmer weather will at least temper this a bit, I don't think is enough to justify keeping people locked up for the duration.

We are starting to suffer paralysis by analysis to a degree.

Not necessarily, in that we've seen that there can be some really bad results and some real bad shit can still happen if it's a huge number all at once.

My hope is that we've got a shitload more people that have or do have it and we'll burn thru it faster than we thought.

[KChiefs1]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

people aren't going to just sit inside for months. It was never realistic. A complete lockdown of indefinite duration had the staying power of a fart in a hurricane.

Yes, people are going back out. They were ALWAYS going to go back out. Which was why a staggered and measured approach was always preferable in areas where it was feasible.

So, y'know, 80% of the country.

The heavy-handed and poorly-tailored response to this will create significant problems as we progress. And the public response will be less and less robust. And in the end, we'll be as bad or worse off for it and over a much longer timeline.

I totally agree but just getting groceries this morning & picking up medicine from Walgreens, it was very very obvious that Jeff City believes it’s over.

I was afraid this would happen as most around here could care less about NYC & think that’s a foreign country. I don’t think it is even the number one issue around these parts...yet!

[O.city]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What's the population and land mass of both SK and Germany?

Ideally I agree with you.

And FYI, Germany is #4 on the list of total cases.

Germany has tested a ****load of people IIRC.

[dirk digler]

Originally Posted by petegz28

What's the population and land mass of both SK and Germany?

Ideally I agree with you.

And FYI, Germany is #4 on the list of total cases.

that is why I said ideally and let's be honest it won't ever happen here so we just need to wait for therapeutics and a vaccine until then it is going to be start and stop so people better get used to that.

[SAUTO]

Originally Posted by petegz28

There is a lot of people and "experts" trying to have it both ways. On one hand they base a lot of these models and their statements on the data at hand to paint a very dire scenario. Then on the other they say, well we really have no idea how many people REALLY have it and don't have symptoms or are so mild they work through it, etc.

So the logical conclusion is they are both right and wrong. We have to assume that the people serious enough to get their ass to a hospital are legit if they tested positive. But then we also have to assume that there are literally millions of people who have bee exposed and are either not that serious or immune or asymptomatic or whatever term fits your fancy.

So if that is the case then you have to ask yourself are we going too far? My only argument for what is happening right now is to keep hospitals from being overrun and giving time to find suitable treatments.

But this fear or a re-spike in the fall, which we will get and which does admit to a degree that warmer weather will at least temper this a bit, I don't think is enough to justify keeping people locked up for the duration.

We are starting to suffer paralysis by analysis to a degree.

there are 180 to 195 people dying in NY in their houses every day that aren’t even getting tested.

The numbers don’t really mean much

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

Germany has tested a ****load of people IIRC.

Sure but this per million test rate comparing is reeruned. Always had been, if the United States and Germany had both only tested one person each Germany would still be ahead by that metric.

Also that means Germany has more confirmed cases per a million.

It's a dumb shift after testing numbers for the US Sky rocketed.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

I totally agree but just getting groceries this morning & picking up medicine from Walgreens, it was very very obvious that Jeff City believes it’s over.

I was afraid this would happen as most around here could care less about NYC & think that’s a foreign country. I don’t think it is even the number one issue around these parts...yet!

Before you feel too bad - just remember that NYC couldn't care less about Jefferson City either.

Flyover country exists for comedy fodder and little else to the vast majority of that region.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Sure but this per million test rate comparing is reeruned. Always had been, if the United States and Germany had both only tested one person each Germany would still be ahead by that metric.

Also that means Germany has more confirmed cases per a million.

It's a dumb shift after testing numbers for the US Sky rocketed.

Germany has done a great job with this thing. Thats not really debatable is it?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by O.city

Germany has tested a ****load of people IIRC.

11,046 tests per million pop.

[BleedingRed]

Originally Posted by O.city

Germany has done a great job with this thing. Thats not really debatable is it?

sure they have, they I would say have done the best followed by US followed by South Korea.

We have tested 2 million people in 31 days. And that rate has accelerated.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Before you feel too bad - just remember that NYC couldn't care less about Jefferson City either.

Flyover country exists for comedy fodder and little else to the vast majority of that region.

Once more with feeling