Why are so many national writers so high on the Chargers?

[TLO]

Flavor of the off-season or are the Chargers a legit Super Bowl contender.

Let's discuss in here.

[lawrenceRaider]

Originally Posted by sedated

All the QBs in the top 10 in passing yards are, or will be, in the HOF. (Unless Rivers is the only outlier)

All the QBs in the top 10 in passing TDs are, or will be, in the HOF. Rivers is 6th. (Unless Rivers is the only outlier)

I'm not saying Rivers is a lock, but to say it's not even borderline seems a bit biased.

Rivers a HOFer? If it happens, then HOF will truly mean nothing.

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by O.city

Well, for one, I'm talking about the media.

And you completely misinterpreted my post.

which media said mahomes would under achieve this season?


that wasn't your take? because that seems your opinion....

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Pawnmower

keenan ivoray evans allen wayans

"Message!"

[CrossCheck]

They have some nice pieces but............ they were 2-5 against teams 500 or better last year, beating the 9-7 Bills and the 9-7 Elliottless Cowboys.
their 9 wins came against teams with a combined 50-94 record......woo...whooo

and they were fairly healthy
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...7_injuries.htm

[wazu]

Originally Posted by lawrenceRaider

Rivers a HOFer? If it happens, then HOF will truly mean nothing.

Already the case. Bettis is in.

[wazu]

After this season Rivers will easily be 7th all time in passing yards. He’s already 6th all time in passing TDs.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by sedated

Rivers is 9th all time in passing yards, one in front of Warren Moon (HOF) and a few spots behind Dan Marino (HOF), neither played in a SB.

On the flip side, he's not too far ahead of Carson Palmer (12), Vinny Testaverde (13), Drew Bledsoe (14), and Kerry Collins (17).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XIX

Marino's lone SB appearance was tarnished by a lopsided loss.

If you put Marino on those loaded San Fran teams- they would have would 10 SuperBowls.

[Halfcan]

Rivers would be one of the last NFL QB's I would want with the game on the line in the SuperBowl. He has more choke jobs than signature wins in his career.

[Rain Man]

I'm curious about the Chargers as well. Maybe it's just habit, but I never view the Chargers as being relevant.

If I was to step outside my Chiefs fandom for a moment and think about how a national writer might view the division, starting at the top last year.

1. Chiefs (10-6 in 2017). Not knowing the Chiefs, I'd probably conclude that they're starting a young quarterback and that their quarterback last year was statistically very effective. I'd see that they didn't have a first-round pick this year, so they may have lost some ground in the offseason, especially by giving away Peters, and I'd see that the defense was not ranked very high to cover up for a young quarterback's mistakes.

The error in this thinking is what we all know. This offense is a powder keg that was held back by conservative quarterback play last year. We've actually seen Patrick Mahomes II play on an NFL level, and we know what he's going to add. Also, the defense is getting younger and faster, and hopefully ridding itself of low-effort guys, but who are we kidding? Defense won't matter when Mahomes is revving full-throttle.

2. Chargers (9-7 in 2017). A national writer will see the most experienced quarterback in the division who routinely produces a lot of yards, and a couple of established pass rushers. They'll see that the Chargers lost most of their draft class to injury last year, so they'll effectively introduce two drafts this year. A national writer will conclude that they'll improve.

The error in this thinking is that Rivers doesn't have the "it" factor. He hasn't had a team above 9-7 in a decade, and their new coach is going to hit the wall this year as other teams get film on his tendencies. The Chargers are an injury-prone team (which is likely something baked into their risk-taking), so they'll always lose players to injuries at a higher rate. Other than Joey Bosa, who is legit, guys like Melvin Ingram and Melvin Gordon look good only because they're the best talent on the team. They're not great players when you look across the league. Gordon has not had a season averaging 4.0 ypc, and Ingram tops out at 10 sacks per year, which doesn't wow anyone.

3. Raiders (6-10 in 2017). A national writer will see Derek Carr and presume success. The Raiders tend to find some big names in free agency, so they get media attention.

The error in this thinking is that Carr is above average, but not great, and he has no talent around him. Their free agents are has-beens like Marshawn Lynch and Jordy Nelson who don't scare teams any more. And their defense has holes everywhere you look.

4. Broncos (5-11 in 2017). If you're a national writer, you might ascribe all of the blame to the quarterback situation, and a fair amount does belong there. Adding Casey Kasem at quarterback brings them up from abysmal to adequate at that position. Also, it appears that Denver drafted more out of a draft magazine this year than relying on their scouts, as it seems that they took more low-risk players. So if you assume that there's a big bump at the QB position, maybe you see them going higher than 5-11.

This thinking is wrong, of course, because they continue to lose talent on defense, and their quarterback is a stopgap. Their receivers are getting lethargic, they have no running game, and the worst OL in the business. Will they beat 5-11? Not likely.

[Buckweath]

It is a fallacy to say that the Chiefs had conservative QB play last year. You need to watch the games.

I don't expect Mahomes to be as good as Smith was last year overall but I expect him to be more clutch and not disappear when it matters. Well that might be considered better but you get my point.

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by CrossCheck

They have some nice pieces but............ they were 2-5 against teams 500 or better last year, beating the 9-7 Bills and the 9-7 Elliottless Cowboys.
their 9 wins came against teams with a combined 50-94 record......woo...whooo

and they were fairly healthy
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...7_injuries.htm

This right here says a lot

[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Originally Posted by Buckweath

It is a fallacy to say that the Chiefs had conservative QB play last year. You need to watch the games.

I don't expect Mahomes to be as good as Smith was last year overall but I expect him to be more clutch and not disappear when it matters. Well that might be considered better but you get my point.

I'd bet anything Mahomes will have more TDs, Yards and ints than smith did last year.

[Halfcan]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I'm curious about the Chargers as well. Maybe it's just habit, but I never view the Chargers as being relevant.

If I was to step outside my Chiefs fandom for a moment and think about how a national writer might view the division, starting at the top last year.

1. Chiefs (10-6 in 2017). Not knowing the Chiefs, I'd probably conclude that they're starting a young quarterback and that their quarterback last year was statistically very effective. I'd see that they didn't have a first-round pick this year, so they may have lost some ground in the offseason, especially by giving away Peters, and I'd see that the defense was not ranked very high to cover up for a young quarterback's mistakes.

The error in this thinking is what we all know. This offense is a powder keg that was held back by conservative quarterback play last year. We've actually seen Patrick Mahomes II play on an NFL level, and we know what he's going to add. Also, the defense is getting younger and faster, and hopefully ridding itself of low-effort guys, but who are we kidding? Defense won't matter when Mahomes is revving full-throttle.

2. Chargers (9-7 in 2017). A national writer will see the most experienced quarterback in the division who routinely produces a lot of yards, and a couple of established pass rushers. They'll see that the Chargers lost most of their draft class to injury last year, so they'll effectively introduce two drafts this year. A national writer will conclude that they'll improve.

The error in this thinking is that Rivers doesn't have the "it" factor. He hasn't had a team above 9-7 in a decade, and their new coach is going to hit the wall this year as other teams get film on his tendencies. The Chargers are an injury-prone team (which is likely something baked into their risk-taking), so they'll always lose players to injuries at a higher rate. Other than Joey Bosa, who is legit, guys like Melvin Ingram and Melvin Gordon look good only because they're the best talent on the team. They're not great players when you look across the league. Gordon has not had a season averaging 4.0 ypc, and Ingram tops out at 10 sacks per year, which doesn't wow anyone.

3. Raiders (6-10 in 2017). A national writer will see Derek Carr and presume success. The Raiders tend to find some big names in free agency, so they get media attention.

The error in this thinking is that Carr is above average, but not great, and he has no talent around him. Their free agents are has-beens like Marshawn Lynch and Jordy Nelson who don't scare teams any more. And their defense has holes everywhere you look.

4. Broncos (5-11 in 2017). If you're a national writer, you might ascribe all of the blame to the quarterback situation, and a fair amount does belong there. Adding Casey Kasem at quarterback brings them up from abysmal to adequate at that position. Also, it appears that Denver drafted more out of a draft magazine this year than relying on their scouts, as it seems that they took more low-risk players. So if you assume that there's a big bump at the QB position, maybe you see them going higher than 5-11.

This thinking is wrong, of course, because they continue to lose talent on defense, and their quarterback is a stopgap. Their receivers are getting lethargic, they have no running game, and the worst OL in the business. Will they beat 5-11? Not likely.

I wish I could Positive Rep you 10 times for this post.

[sedated]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XIX

Marino's lone SB appearance was tarnished by a lopsided loss.

Can't believe I forgot about that.

[ToxSocks]

Originally Posted by sedated

All the QBs in the top 10 in passing yards are, or will be, in the HOF. (Unless Rivers is the only outlier)

All the QBs in the top 10 in passing TDs are, or will be, in the HOF. Rivers is 6th. (Unless Rivers is the only outlier)

I'm not saying Rivers is a lock, but to say it's not even borderline seems a bit biased.

As a San Diegan, i've watched him his whole career. He's a perennial choker. For years i lectured CPers not to sleep on Rivers.

But it's time to call a spade a spade. The dude has not been good in awhile. The Rivers that people have in there heads is long gone. I haven't seen that QB in a long time. No bias here.

It's just been a long time since he performed like a winning QB.

The Rivers/HOF debate is something that was a popular topic in SD. Years ago, i agreed that he had a HOF type career path. But these last several years have not amounted to anything. He's regressed IMO.

Again, what is Rivers' HOF moment?

What big game did he win?

What was his memorable, heroic moment?

He's a QB with a losing record, and in his era wasn't BREAKING records. The other stat guys you mentioned were game changers in their era. Rivers is not.