Looks like Spagnuolo [favorite for] DC

[Raiderhater]

Originally Posted by TwistedChief

Maybe Reid just didn't want to take the risk? Let's say with Spagnuolo (already annoying typing this clown's name) the average outcome with low variance is we go from 32nd to 25th in defense. That's probably enough to get us to the Super Bowl.

Whereas with one of these exciting young guys, our average outcome could be similar but with much higher variability. What if the guy totally didn't work and our defense actually regressed and we didn't even make Divisional Round because of it?

I guess if I thought we were really far away from a Super Bowl, I'd be much more inclined to take the risk of one of these young guys. But Reid presumably knows exactly what he's getting with Spagnuolo which isn't a bad thing when we're this close. Add to that the fact that Reid probably wants to take a very hands-off approach with the defense and needs an adult in that role.

Not saying I like the decision, but I understand it. There are so many factors that are going to determine whether this is a successful hire or not, so I'm not inclined to have too strong of an opinion at this point one way or the other.

How does one regress from the position of worst?