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Old 04-05-2017, 10:55 AM  
Chiefspants Chiefspants is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Repository ***

Chiefsplanet’s (Proposed) 2017 Season Title: One Last Ride

Midish-Season Update (Royals 51-47, 2nd Wild Card, 1.5 GB of ALC):

We're halfway through 2017, and fittingly to the Chiefsplanet's 2017 Season Title, the Royals are all-in on what will likely be one final run with the current core. While many are worried the Royals will take a 2004 style tumble after this year, the farm system is hardly the barren wasteland it was during the Baird years. To see what's in the pipeline and what we have to look forward to, check out this exceptional list and analysis that Duncan put together of our system.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...htmlview#gid=0

While I had the honor of starting this thread this year, Duncan will always have a VIP pass to this OP, and can add more content at any time.

2017's Burning Questions Revisited:

1. What is the threshold between being “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline?

We're buyers, baby.

In April, I argued that it would be a wise strategy for us to sell if we were 5 GB or worse, but that Dayton would likely add supplemental pieces for us to load up for another run if we were 1-2 GB. On July 24th, the Royals found themselves in sole possession of the 2nd wild card spot and 1.5 games back of the division. In April I said the Royals might pull the trigger on someone like Alex Cobb and resign Luke Hochevar, but since the Rays are also buyers and Luke's shoulder hasn't rebounded, this prediction hasn't come to fruition. Luckily, Dayton Moore again proved much more adept and creative than me by adding Trevor Cahill (good call, Duncan), Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter in a single trade. Giving us a solid starter to compete in 2017, and two relievers whom we will control through 2019 and 2021, respectively, keeping Moore's new vision through 2019-2020 intact. Moore has hinted that the Royals will continue to pursue the right deals if they're there, so the fun may not be over just yet. While we may not have the bullets to pull in a "star" like Cueto or Zo, Moore's adeptness may yet again net us what we need for another run in October.

2. Can Gordo and Moose bounce back to 2015 levels?

In April I asked if Gordo could at least set the table at a 265/325/425 clip and if Moose could deliver damage around a 265/335/500 clip for an entire year. This season Mr. Moustakas has been the prospect that was promised, delivering at a 277/307/568 clip as of this update. Gordo, on the other hand, has put up an unbelievably abysmal line thus far. But, if there is a silver lining, it's that Gordo has performed at a 246/311/432 line since June 1st, and if he can continue to perform near that mark, he will be more than a valuable asset at the bottom of the lineup while he continues to provide the best LF defense in the league.

3. Can Ned Yost manage a bullpen?

In April, I felt that despite the poor start, Royals bullpen would ultimately be "solid" this year, but the question was whether "solid" was good enough for Ned. I argued that the Royals needed Soria to bounce back and that Ned would need to start being strategic in his L/L and R/R matchups. While Ned has still made at times baffling and frustrating decisions with his starters (such as allowing Travis Wood to try to "get the win" and still insisting on sending Hammel out for the 6th, he's mostly done a good job).

MASH: Minor/Moylan - Alexander - Soria - Herrera (Credit to C3HIEF3S for the origins of the phrase) have cemented into reliable pieces, and now that Herrera is showing signs of stabilizing, our dumping of Wood, our call up Flynn, and the acquisition of Buchter and Maurer, the Royals have the potential to enter October with one of the best and deepest bullpens in the postseason.

4. Will the Royals find a boost from an unexpected X-Factor to lift them to contention?

Cool-Whit, Boni, Mike ****ing Minor, and Alexander have come up huge thus far. Cool Whit is, incredibly, is second on the team in WAR and has more than replaced Zo's presence on the team. They, like the X-Factors on the 2014-2015 teams, have been critical cogs as we've raced back to contention, while Cool-Whit and Boni also have provided a rosier outlook for this team's future. It's worth noting that Salvador Perez and Jason Vargas has been beasts on offense and the mound (along with Sal providing his customary defensive excellence), but I am still a bit wary of Salvy's annual Yost assisted offensive drought as the team moves into August, along with Vargy regressing to his averages.

5. Can Jorge Soler and Brandon Moss be productive contributors in Kauffman’s dimensions?

Ouch, no, but the Royals shift to power-hitting in the juiced ball era looks like one that will pay off. Thankfully, Moss is showing signs of entering his seasonal hot streak where he becomes corn-fed Jesus for a month, and we'll need him hot to keep up with Cleveland down the stretch. While Jorge has been painful to watch in the majors, his scorching performance in AAA should give one a bright hope for the future. While some may disagree, I offer Moose, Hos, Gordo, and Duffy's struggles as exhibit A for why it is far too early to give up on Soler's potential.

Bonus Question - Is Raul Mondesi truly ready to be an everyday player?

Ha! Not even close. However, like Soler, his progress in AAA is incredibly encouraging. With ceilings like Lindor and floors being Esky being thrown out there, it's hard not to be excited about his future.

The Picture Forward

There are many reasons to be excited, and not only for 2017. The Royals emergence of Cool Whit, Bonifacio, and Scott Alexander, and the fact that we have pieces like Salvador Perez, Danny Duffy, Kelvin Herrera, Jorge Soler, Ryan Buchter, Brandon Maurer Cheslor Cuthbert, and Raul Mondesi until at least 2019 should leave one feeling pretty optimistic. Re-up Moose or Hos (and heck, re-sign Dyson while we're at it), and suddenly this team looks very much like one that could compete for the indefinite future.

The Royals are all in again, buckle in and enjoy the ride.

April OP:

Spoiler!

Last edited by Chiefspants; 08-02-2017 at 01:53 PM..
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Old 07-26-2017, 09:29 PM   #4726
penbrook penbrook is offline
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Originally Posted by dlphg9 View Post
New TV contract and that contract could get better with continued success
Always backload the contracts but would be risky since they would be getting older
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Old 07-26-2017, 09:34 PM   #4727
jettio jettio is offline
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Originally Posted by BWillie View Post
I did bitch about Mondesi non-stop because he was playing in the majors too early. I've always loved the kid, I was just not happy the organization rushed him when he clearly wasn't ready. I've said he wouldn't be ready until most likely 2018 when we threw him in the mix in the World Series in 2015 for some unknown reason and you all called me an idiot. Turns out, yeah, he wasn't ready afterall. Clearly. He hadn't ever had a large sample size in the minors showing he can hit until this year. He might finally be actually ready this September.

Here is how we rank in terms of WAR (which you know, includes defense) by position
Perez, 3rd at Catcher
Hosmer, 9th at 1B. 2.4 WAR.
Whit, 2nd at 2B. 3.1 WAR.
Moose, 19th at 3B. 1.4 WAR.
Gordon, 27th at LF. 0.6 WAR.
Cain, 6th at CF. 2.7 WAR
Bonifacio, 27th at RF. 0.5 WAR
Escobar, 56th at SS. -0.6 WAR.

Notice anything?

Last year, he was the 35th best SS by WAR. It was probably even worse than that actually, since he has the luxury of getting sooo many at bats to have the potential to push his WAR/value higher than those part time short stops getting 300 abs a year. He had an OPS that was 143rd out of 146 of everyday players.

His production has been a problem. If you believe otherwise, you are in denial.
Seems to me that he has a good approach at the plate for the last several weeks. IMO Escobar has been a better than average overall SS since the team started playing better overall.
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Old 07-26-2017, 09:47 PM   #4728
DaneMcCloud DaneMcCloud is offline
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Always backload the contracts but would be risky since they would be getting older
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Old 07-26-2017, 09:50 PM   #4729
SAUTO SAUTO is offline
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Old 07-26-2017, 10:27 PM   #4730
Why Not? Why Not? is offline
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We'll hit Fenway 2 GB but finally get some schedule help as the Yanks and Rays start a 4 gamer tomorrow.
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Old 07-27-2017, 04:35 AM   #4731
Archie F. Swin Archie F. Swin is offline
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It's up to Mr Glass to open up the checkbooks
I vote a resounding "no".

Cut the guys loose. let them carry on with what could be a HOF career. We'll press on and look forward to the future.

Like us, Moose, Hos [et al] will always have Kansas City. We must learn from Detroit
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Old 07-27-2017, 05:19 AM   #4732
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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I think the chances of signing both Hosmer and Moustakas are zero, and they should be.

Too much risk for Kansas City. Maybe they bring back one, but I have a hard time seeing it, considering the season they're each having.


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Old 07-27-2017, 06:18 AM   #4733
DeepSouth DeepSouth is offline
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
I think the chances of signing both Hosmer and Moustakas are zero, and they should be.

Too much risk for Kansas City. Maybe they bring back one, but I have a hard time seeing it, considering the season they're each having.


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I agree with this. I think the most realistic chance of keeping any of the potential free agents will be Cain and Minor. Unless Starling miraculously turns the corner, the Royals have no CF for 2018. I'm not too keen on spending big bucks on another aging outfielder but it might be the best option. Due to his age and injury history he should be less expensive that Hos and Moose. I'd rather keep Cain than bring back Dyson. Dyson is also getting up there is age.
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:39 AM   #4734
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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I vote a resounding "no".

Cut the guys loose. let them carry on with what could be a HOF career. We'll press on and look forward to the future.

Like us, Moose, Hos [et al] will always have Kansas City. We must learn from Detroit
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:57 AM   #4735
mr. tegu mr. tegu is offline
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The team that won the 2014 World Series got swept in the regular season in a three game series by the team they beat for the title. In other words, sorry Dodgers!
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:10 AM   #4736
Archie F. Swin Archie F. Swin is offline
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Moose and Hos aren't the sole reasons KC won a championship, they are just links on a chain. In baseball, loyalty will eventually break you.

What sucks is how likable the two are. It will be tough to see them go.
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:21 AM   #4737
Archie F. Swin Archie F. Swin is offline
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they are the SUPERSTARS along with Salvy.
Ask someone outside of KS/MO to name some MLB superstars and its doubtful a Royals player will be named

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Old 07-27-2017, 07:42 AM   #4738
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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Rick-

Signing all your aging free agents is a great way to end up like the Phillies or Tigers of recent years.

Yes, Hosmer and Moustakas are still young and just entering their prime years, but the 5-7 year commitments they'll command take you beyond those, and they both have "aging" risks.

Simply wanting to win doesn't stave off Father Time. Alex Gordon is a great example of that.

There's also the matter of financial commitments and what the team can bear. Currently, the Royals have around $123 million committed for 2018, for 9 players. Adding two more at a cost of $40 million leaves you with 11 guys at a price tag of $160 million. Even filling out the roster with league minimum guys ups that MLB payroll to $170 million. And that leaves you with league minimum guys starting behind Duffy, Kennedy, and Hammel, which probably doesn't help you compete.

It leaves you with a league min guy in CF, which doesn't help you compete.

It pumps the cost of the overall organization to a quarter of a billion dollars.

Sure, David Glass has made a lot of money on the team. He's crazy rich.

But this isn't just about "can he afford it..." it's about is the thing that sets the team up the best moving forward?

If you believe KC can support a yearly payroll that approaches $200 million, sure, it does. And that's what it would take to supplement the team on top of commitments for 2018 (and they're not going down THAT much in 2019... would be 2020 before Gordon comes off the books and is the first major relief).


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Old 07-27-2017, 08:24 AM   #4739
IowaHawkeyeChief IowaHawkeyeChief is offline
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:25 AM   #4740
siberian khatru siberian khatru is offline
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Originally Posted by Archie F. Swin View Post
Ask someone outside of KS/MO to name some MLB superstars and its doubtful a Royals player will be named

For some reason that reminded me of this tweet the other day:


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