Worst Case 1st Round

[Chargem]

Whats the worst case result that the Chiefs could realistically actually do in the first round, in your opinion, and how would you feel about it if it happened? You can include trades.

I think my worst case that I can see the Chiefs actually doing is:

29. Skyy Moore
30. Travis Jones

How would I feel about this?

Actually pretty fine. It would just feel a bit underwhelming.

[Chris Meck]

I'd be pretty underwhelmed.

A small, slow WR and a space eater DT?

Yeah, that's a no for me, dawg.

[Hoover]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I'd be pretty underwhelmed.

A small, slow WR and a space eater DT?

Yeah, that's a no for me, dawg.

Agree. I'd rather draft a couple corners, or a corner and a RT

[Wilson8]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

I'd be pretty underwhelmed.

A small, slow WR and a space eater DT?

Yeah, that's a no for me, dawg.

WR Skyy Moore might be our pick, but I really think if the best WRs, CBs, and Edge guys have been drafted before 29, then a really good DT or OT will fall to us. Not the most critical need, but still important and would improve the Chiefs.

Skyy is not a burner, but he did run a 4.41, 40 and has really good hands, so I would be OK if KC and the draft went that way

[htismaqe]

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

Probably so, yeah.

[Chargem]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

This is a close 2nd for me, trading up to about 16 or 18, but still not getting one of the top ~4 WRs or DEs...

[CatfishBob2]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Worst case would be trading multiple high picks to get up into the teens...

I almost hit the like button, but it depends on who falls. Our most pressing need is still DE by far. Teams make moves like that with far less capital than we have.

[DJ's left nut]

I've done that exercise in a couple other threads around here.

Bottom line is that for the draft board to really take a shit ahead of us, the QBs have to slide. And if the QBs slide, we can get a trade-down made w/ the Lions and Seahawks. May even be able to get 2 of 'em done.

I don't see a scenario where Skyy Moore goes in the first round. Jones I could see, but I see more ceiling in him than some do.

For me the most underwhelming 1st round that I can actually see happening is something like Mafe/Pickens. I could see the Chiefs seeing both of those guys at 'the bottom of the tier' and being unwilling to risk losing out altogether on that tier of players so they stand pat and make the picks.

And yeah, that would be DAMN underwhelming. But it does at least come with the upshot of two guys who could be very good.

And as far as 'worst case scenarios' go - well it's a long way removed from Jonathan Baldwin or Trazelle Jenkins.

[Chiefnj2]

If there isn't a QB run or CB run, then KC risks having to take tier 2 WR's and DE's. If that is the case, I'd have no problem taking a top ranked CB or Safety with one of the first round picks and trying to fall back a little for a QB hungry team looking to move up. This might be a year, where numbers are better.

[kccrow]

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by kccrow

The worst case for me is to trade up for Jameson Williams and then draft Ojabo at 30.

Zero impact WR until the last 3rd of the season and a guy that won't play until 2023 with huge question marks looming over his future.

Other than that, they could pretty much draft any players most boards have in the top 60 and I'd feel okay about it.

I have zero issues with trading up if it's to get a guy they think will be an instant impact.

I have no problem with a small trade up. I'm just not into giving away an extra 1st or 2nd to go too high, when I just don't see the separation between the edge rushers and WR's to justify it.

Other than that, I'm with you. I hate the thought of taking guys with injuries and hoping they come back full strength. Hope doesn't win a lot of football games.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

I have no problem with a small trade up. I'm just not into giving away an extra 1st or 2nd to go too high, when I just don't see the separation between the edge rushers and WR's to justify it.

Other than that, I'm with you. I hate the thought of taking guys with injuries and hoping they come back full strength. Hope doesn't win a lot of football games.

I do disagree with you on the differences in tiers but that's okay. I think there's a much steeper drop at ER than there is at WR though.

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

There's such an insane amount of long-term potential that I think I'd still prefer that over the Mafe/Pickens scenario I outlined.

Granted, the risk there is staggering. But if those guys get healthy and play to their pre-injury form, you've added 2 guys who were legitimately in the conversation as top 10 picks.

I wouldn't be terribly excited about that much risk (one or the other is fine), but it's not something that I'd be apoplectic about either.

I'd be okay with Williams if he fell but there's too much talk about getting up into the mid-to-high teens for him. I wouldn't want that. If they are going up there, I'd hope they just as well grab Olave and call it a day. There's really not a great difference in talent there. Olave probably is the better player over the first couple of years, but you're right on Jameson having some pretty serious upside. That said, I'm not too thrilled with moving up for a WR in this draft in particular, it's pretty deep.

I am not on board with taking a shot on Ojabo at all until at least round 3. I'd be pretty pissed. Not pissed enough to throw my TV out the window but more on the level of "WTF?!" pissed like I was with Gay because I, personally, think it's a terrible practice to take players in the first two rounds that can't give you much of a contribution in the first couple of years. It's not because they are "bad" players or don't have the potential to be "great" players, it's because you're taking on the type of development you expect out of mid-round guys in lieu of other guys that could have a more immediate impact. Take those projects in the 3rd to 5th rounds, I'm perfectly fine with that. The bigger problem with Ojabo is that while there is a better than ever chance he comes back as a productive player, there's no guarantee he'll ever amount to shit after that injury. It's a tough one. I feel better about my boy Damone Clark after spinal fusion than I do about Ojabo in terms of long-term projection. I get the want/desire to take the risk on Ojabo but the 1st round really is not the place to do that. Do you want to do it in the 2nd? I'd be more comfortable than the 1st, that's for sure.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I do disagree with you on the differences in tiers but that's okay. I think there's a much steeper drop at ER than there is at WR though.



I'd be okay with Williams if he fell but there's too much talk about getting up into the mid-to-high teens for him. I wouldn't want that. If they are going up there, I'd hope they just as well grab Olave and call it a day. There's really not a great difference in talent there. Olave probably is the better player over the first couple of years, but you're right on Jameson having some pretty serious upside. That said, I'm not too thrilled with moving up for a WR in this draft in particular, it's pretty deep.

I am not on board with taking a shot on Ojabo at all until at least round 3. I'd be pretty pissed. Not pissed enough to throw my TV out the window but more on the level of "WTF?!" pissed like I was with Gay because I, personally, think it's a terrible practice to take players in the first two rounds that can't give you much of a contribution in the first couple of years. It's not because they are "bad" players or don't have the potential to be "great" players, it's because you're taking on the type of development you expect out of mid-round guys in lieu of other guys that could have a more immediate impact. Take those projects in the 3rd to 5th rounds, I'm perfectly fine with that. The bigger problem with Ojabo is that while there is a better than ever chance he comes back as a productive player, there's no guarantee he'll ever amount to shit after that injury. It's a tough one. I feel better about my boy Damone Clark after spinal fusion than I do about Ojabo in terms of long-term projection. I get the want/desire to take the risk on Ojabo but the 1st round really is not the place to do that. Do you want to do it in the 2nd? I'd be more comfortable than the 1st, that's for sure.

The possibility of getting the sort of return that the Titans got on Jeffery Simmons is just awfully intriguing...

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

The possibility of getting the sort of return that the Titans got on Jeffery Simmons is just awfully intriguing...

It is, but Simmons tore his ACL so it's more like the Williams situation. The Ojabo situation is rare. We have a comp in Odeyingbo from last year but that situation didn't look that great to me. I do read about the high hopes and "flashes" he showed in practice but on game days I didn't see it. We'll see.