Production Per Unit Salary Cap: The Frank Clark Excercise

[kccrow]

I know that Beuhler is especially big on production per unit salary cap and so that got me thinking about the impact of cutting Frank Clark and it led me to re-ask the question: is it worth cutting Frank?

When you look at Frank's production, in and of itself, it obviously does not give you a good return on units of salary cap. However, there's more, in my opinion, to cutting Frank than meets the eye.

When you cut Frank, you have to look at replacement cost and the production per unit of salary cap you get by doing so. Cutting Frank in 2022 forces the Chiefs to eat $13.6 million in cap space. As for the replacement, you're likely looking at at least $7.0 million of new contract costs. That means, to replace Frank it will cost you $20.6 million, as a very likely minimum.

So, the question is do you keep Frank's production at a cap number of $26.3 million in 2022, or do you feel like you can get more production at a minimum cost of $20.6 million?

When you start looking at options in 2022 free agency, the decision does become a bit muddy from the perspective of purely replacing Clark. If you can get Emmanuel Ogbah to come back for the price, it makes sense. I think you get more production. If you look at guys like Barnett and Fowler, they aren't producing at a better pace, and then it becomes an equation looking at whether they are producing more or less per unit of cap. If you look at Barnett, as a case study, and extrapolate his 2021 production over 17 games applied to $20.6 million in cap, that means each tackle costs $389k, sack $10.9m, and QB hit $1.36 m. Frank, similarly, would cost $773k per tackle, $9.3m per sack, and $1.33 m per QB hit. Frank is better from an "affecting the QB" standpoint, but not significantly, and he certainly is failing in the tackles department.

With the limited difference in production per unit of potential cap based solely on Clark v other options, I think you have to look at additional factors.

Obviously, you have the off-the-field situation but I think the bigger item we have to consider is the opportunity cost of keeping Frank because he frees up enough cap space, theoretically, to add another starting-caliber player when you look at a potential $5.7 m in leftover cap to get from $20.6 million to $26.3 million.

What can $5.7m buy you? Most things, I'd argue. Certainly a starting Safety, Linebacker, or Defensive Tackle. Nick Morrow signed for $4.5 million on a 1 year deal with LV this year (unfortunately for him and them he was injured). Jarran Reed signed with us for $5.5 million (unfortunately for us, he's been nothing like his former self). The point is though, both Morrow and Reed were attractive free-agent options with productive, starting-caliber pedigrees. The space could also go towards snagging a quality free agent. You look at Matt Judon going to NE, his first year is only $6.2 million. Bud Dupree's contract was only $5.1 million in 2021.

And, we can certainly combine the net $12.7 m in whatever way we want but the theory here is that the Chiefs should be able to get 2 solid starters that at least replace Frank's production while adding production elsewhere which makes eating $13.6 million palatable. Even then, you have $12.7 m to get better production than the $26.3 Frank would cost, and I don't see that as some impossible task.

I just wanted to share this as I started thinking about applying it to other players moving forward.

[Buehler445]

Good stuff. Glad the Buehler metric is gaining traction

[Chris Meck]

While I don't disagree with your monetary metrics, I think it's important to make a clean break this offseason with the high priced veteran, many of whom were just coasting the first almost half-season.

We need some lower priced hungry dogs and less off the field distractions.

[Coogs]

We can designate Clark as a post June 1st cut, and he would only cost 6.8 M against the cap in 2022.

https://overthecap.com/player/frank-clark/3911/

[Nightfyre]

Clark will likely not end up cut in 2022, if I had to guess. Net cap savings is 13m, and you are unlikely to replace his production for that.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Clark will likely not end up cut in 2022, if I had to guess. Net cap savings is 13m, and you are unlikely to replace his production for that.

see post above.

[kccrow]

I'd definitely argue on the side of you can replace Frank's production in year one of a multi-year deal easily for 13 m and potentially for half of that

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Coogs

We can designate Clark as a post June 1st cut, and he would only cost 6.8 M against the cap in 2022.

https://overthecap.com/player/frank-clark/3911/

Exactly.

Designate him post-June 1 and there's $7M in dead cap but a net cap savings of $19.5M.

It's not even a discussion, they HAVE to cut him.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Clark will likely not end up cut in 2022, if I had to guess. Net cap savings is 13m, and you are unlikely to replace his production for that.

Net cap savings is almost $20M as a post-June 1 cut.

If they want to get into backloaded contracts, they could get FOUR guys for that, not just two.

[RunKC]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Net cap savings is almost $20M as a post-June 1 cut.

If they want to get into backloaded contracts, they could get FOUR guys for that, not just two.

I guess that depends on Orlando Brown and Tyrann Mathieu. LT franchise tag is $13.754 million.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by RunKC

I guess that depends on Orlando Brown and Tyrann Mathieu. LT franchise tag is $13.754 million.

Obviously, yeah. One or two of the four guys could already be on the team.

It's a lot of money.

[HC_Chief]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Obviously, yeah. One or two of the four guys could already be on the team.

It's a lot of money.

A ridiculous amount IMO. I like HB, barring stupid social media comments (redundant, I know), but he is not worth nearly 10% of the team's cap. Jones is the only player on the defensive side of the ball that may be worth that.

In the context of production, NO ONE on the defensive side of the ball is worth $20M. This defense has been absolutely awful at times. Historically bad. They have appeared to have turned the corner this season and are now simply mediocre, which tbh is all we need if the offense continues to extract their collective craniums from their rectums. Other than Jones, anyone asking for that much money on the defensive side can pound sand. Draft and bring in hungry, driven, young defenders who want to prove themselves and position for a payday. Dump the guys who made it then have sat on their lazy asses.

[DJ's left nut]

In the rollover era I don't think it's productive to look at cap savings in a single year because what it means going forward can also be significant (for instance, there would be dead money removed from the 2023 cap if you didn't June 1 him and just cut him outright).

Because one way or the other, that signing bonus is going to be on the cap over the next 2 seasons.

What's productive is to look at the $19 million in base salary Clark is owed next year that will forever be excised from the cap and ask yourself if that money can be better utilized.

Yes, it absolutely can. A $19 million base salary is enormous. So unless he's willing to simply take a straight pay cut and bring that base nearer $8-10 million, I think it's a no-brainer.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

In the rollover era I don't think it's productive to look at cap savings in a single year because what it means going forward can also be significant (for instance, there would be dead money removed from the 2023 cap if you didn't June 1 him and just cut him outright).

Because one way or the other, that signing bonus is going to be on the cap over the next 2 seasons.

What's productive is to look at the $19 million in base salary Clark is owed next year that will forever be excised from the cap and ask yourself if that money can be better utilized.

Yes, it absolutely can. A $19 million base salary is enormous. So unless he's willing to simply take a straight pay cut and bring that base nearer $8-10 million, I think it's a no-brainer.

Exactly.

[Nightfyre]

Originally Posted by htismaqe

Net cap savings is almost $20M as a post-June 1 cut.

If they want to get into backloaded contracts, they could get FOUR guys for that, not just two.

You carry that dead cap saved from June 1 designation into 2023. The designation is cap neutral when looked at from a two year perspective.