Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
(Just to be clear I am ONLY concerned with US Covid data, hence why I only used US flu data)
Based on common sense reading of the available data. There are of course some "ifs" that go into it... here are the facts and ifs that lead me to believe in a fairly low (but higher than the flu) CFR.
IF The experts are correct that 50-80% of cases can go completely unnoticed.
IF The majority of people being tested and going into the data pool are the ones with the most severe symptoms (and celebrities)
FACT The disease has been in the US since early January and went unchecked with no social distancing or other controls for 6 weeks +
FACT Our current CFR is running around 1.5%
FACT That 1.5% is a current MAX. You almost always catch the deaths but with a disease like this you may be missing most of the cases.
IF You reasonably assume that there are at least 5 times as many cases in the wild as we are currently seeing numbers for... you can assume that the actual CFR is .3%
These aren't really pie in the sky assumptions.
Of course, things could change at any time but this is based on our current situation.
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I don't disagree with this, but I'd add that we are pretty early in. The death rate is going up strongly now (as it should), along with new case growth. Don't get me wrong; I hope you're right. I had hoped that we'd have a few hundred thousand cases and maybe 10,000 or fewer deaths. Maybe we will.
What I still don't get is why SARS v1.0 is so different than v2.0. It "only" infected 8,000 worldwide and killed 800 (talk about a CFR). We had 27 cases and no fatalities.