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The gap was closing prior to the Rams game but Mahomes still had the lead IMO. After the Rams game, on national TV, Mahomes was having an MVP type of game until the final 2 drives. His arm was bumped and he threw an INT and then threw another INT on a poorly thrown ball (didn't get set...and probably a bad decision anyways).
He will probably need to play flawlessly from here and Brees needs to have a bad game or two for Mahomes to win it. The Saints still play the Steelers, Cowboys, and 2 games against Carolina that could be tough but none really have that good of defenses even in todays NFL.
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