Quote:
Originally Posted by ghak99
That's about what it feels like.
The southern feeders kicking the hornet's nest right before the Kung Flu blew up was just terrible timing. They're showing no mercy. When they say "No Bids", it's 100% a "go **** yourself and eat your steers, we aren't buying them". I've never seen it this cut throat. I caught a tip from a buyer a while back and sent a load of old cows to a sale everyone was expecting a bloodbath at and they sold in the high 70s. Twice what I expected and then I noticed several cull bulls sold for MORE than the current fat quotes. Those mother****ers were a "no bid" in the country while quietly scavenging for the hamburger we all knew they needed at po dunk sale barns.
If I get out of this turn, I'm afraid my banker has lost his edge and isn't going to let me back in at the same level. I can only cash roll about 1/3 of normal and that isn't enough for me to pencil in better margins on the crop side like I have by walking most of the profit off the place instead of hauling. If the bankers don't let the young guys back in I'm afraid there's going to be a fundamental shift just like there was on the hog side in ~98, which could even cause a change on the local crop/feed supply side as well.
I don't want to push this to DC, but a group has apparently finally got to Trump's ear. I have little faith anything out of DC will actually be a good thing, but I guess we'll see. The worst they can do is **** up an already broken toy.
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Good news is your buyer buddy did you a solid.
I don’t know what’s going to happen if cow calf guys have to miss a turn. It would really **** up the supply hard for a long time. Back in 12 when the hay shortage in the south dudes sold some stock it took 5 years to recover. If wide swaths of dudes sell out, yikes.
The interesting thing about cow calf is that it doesn’t scale well. Feeder operations scale easy. Hell grain scales way better than cow calf. Thing about cow calf is you have to run them over the same number of acres no matter what. You can’t concentrate them anywhere.
Nonetheless here’s to hoping you’re the guy that survives the cavalry charge and some dude writes a book about your diary in 100 years.
I’ll dig my trench a little deeper.