Quote:
Originally Posted by Buehler445
Hey Rainman, do you still have carnival stock? I remember you had some positions thinking it would bounce back after the pandemic.
Well it appears they have bounced back in terms of earnings, bookings, etc. The earnings are BETTER than their pre-pandemic numbers, but the stock price is still comparatively shit.
What's your thoughts on it?
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Yeah, I've still got a lot of it. I'm stubborn.
I really liked it back in the day. I had both CUK and RCL stock. The CUK did okay, and the RCL was great. Then a year or so before the shutdown, the CUK started tanking until I was eventually down 40 percent on it. The RCL didn't and I was up a lot on it.
At some point I was about to take a cruise on the third big line, NCLH, and if you own stock you can get onboard credit for purchases, so I bought a little bit for that reason. My timing? I bought it in late February of 2020. Blammo.
At some point that CUK was down 80 percent and the NCLH was down 50 percent, and I was at breakeven on the RCL after I'd previously been up 100 percent.
I've held them and even bought a tiny bit more over time, particularly the NCLH since my timing was so bad on the original purchase that I figure it can go nowhere but up.
The CUK has roughly doubled from the low point, but it's still way down and I'm not sure why. I need it to double again just to get close to the low point before the shutdown. Maybe that's room for big profits, or maybe the market doesn't like CUK for some reason. (Admin note: the American stock is CCL and the British stock is CUK. I accidentally bought CUK and just stuck with it.)
RCL? It's fully recovered and then some. I'm back up over 100 percent on it.
The NCLH has climbed a bit but is still way down from the pre-shutdown. Now I'm down probably 35 percent.
So in summary, RCL has historically been a great stock for me. CUK has had some great gains recently but is still way, way down from historic levels. And NCLH has kind of drifted aimlessly with a slow recovery upward. I don't know why RCL is perceived so differently from the other two, but it's been my clear winner over the past decade.
Like you, my reading is that the companies themselves are thriving. But for some reason the market is still cool on CUK and NCLH. Buying opportunity? I can't tell, and I've already got so much tied up in them that I'm not making any big new bets.