Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerm
I'm not moving 2 1's and a 3rd for the chance to take a LT...esp. when it's not even the top LT prospect in the draft.
Feels asinine to me, sorry.
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What's more asinine is thinking you can get in range for the top tackle in the draft in any year without giving up more than 2 1's and a 3 when we pick at the bottom of the round every year.
The trade value when we moved up to 10 from 27 for Mahomes was pretty much spot on with the Rich Hill model: 216 for our 1st (27), 108 for our 2018 1st (the normal rate for a future pick is 1/2 the value of the current pick in the same round), and 44 for our 3rd (91) totaled 368 points. The 10th pick is valued at 369.
Our same picks this year would have a total value of 316 (32, 95, 2025 1st). That gets you to 15 (315 pts). If we expect to continue to be at that spot and we expect that the top tackle goes in the top 10 each year, then you're going to be giving up at least your 1st, future 1st, 2nd, and 4th. And really, that's about a 4th short if you were going from 32 to 9 this year but a 3rd would be a little heavy.
It's tough to convince a team to trade out of the top 10 to the bottom of the round. Dropping from 15/16 to 32 is a tall order on its own.
Not only all of this but the top 3 tackles this year are all really strong players. I wouldn't hesitate in this particular class to make that move. At the end of the day, you don't generally find LTs that can start day 1 outside of the top 20.