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One of the things you have to do to maintain status as a great team is to know when it is time to cut bait with expensive players and when not to.
The Chiefs roll into 2022 with roughly 20m in space, which will at least half be eaten up by signing Orland Brown. That in mind, Hill is already under contract, so it seems an extension should have the goal of bringing down his near 21m hit (15m of which is a roster bonus that could and probably should be rolled into a signing bonus). The Chiefs can also free up 21m in space by cutting or trading Hitchens and Clark. At minimum, I'd think Clark is a goner but the Chiefs have set things up to let Hitchens go with the addition of Bolton this year. The Chiefs can also free up nearly $22m by rolling Mahomes' roster bonus into a signing bonus again, which they'll likely have to do with all of the roster needs.
As for the roster, here's kind of a breakdown of what's on the table, obviously pending cut-downs...
Starters
ER Alex Okafor (probably gone)
DT Derrick Nnadi (must re-sign IMO)
DT Jarran Reed (depends on how his role shakes out)
CB Charvarius Ward (guessing we lose to FA)
SS Daniel Sorensen (probably time to look towards the future here)
SS Tyrann Mathieu
FB Michael Burton (he's a FB so near vet mins)
LT Orlando Brown (will re-sign, likely at $23m per)
RT Mike Remmers (probably gone as Niang takes the throne)
LS James Winchester (likely re-sign at a bit over 1m per)
Key Depth
LB Ben Niemann (I'd like to think he's gone, although he was retained this year...)
CB Mike Hughes (who knows?)
QB Chad Henne (probably gone)
RB Darrel Williams (nice role player for vet min, but we'll see)
WR Demarcus Robinson (probably gone)
WR Byron Pringle (probably gone)
OC Austin Blythe (we'll see but I'd have to think he isn't re-signing here to be depth)
RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (probably gone)
LG Andrew Wylie (Reid likes the guy for some reason, so who knows for sure)
Just Guys
ER Taco Charlton (Would need decent, healthy year IMO)
ER Demone Harris (Probably gone)
LB Dorian O'Daniel (Probably gone, never graduated past STs)
FS Will Parks (Probably gone)
SS Armani Watts (would need decent, healthy year IMO but probably gone)
RB Jerick McKinnon (have to see what his role and health are)
WR Chad Williams (may not make it out of camp, likely gone)
WR Marcus Kemp (may not make it out of camp, likely gone)
WR Daurice Fountain (see what shakes from camp, might be a guy to re-sign)
TE Blake Bell (probably gone)
RG Kyle Long (probably gone)
LG Bryan Witzmann (probably gone)
RFA (Projected 2022 RoFR = $2.396m) - Doubt they re-sign either
WR Gehrig Dieter
RB Elijah McGuire
ERFA (Vet mins 0 = 705, 1 = 825, 2 = 895, 3 = 965) - Approx. $14.5m to re-sign all, depends on accrued seasons going into next year, and who's retained on PS/Roster. I'd think if they play ER, LB, DB, or WR, then they'll be around + Forston.
ER Tim Ward
ER Austin Edwards
DT Tyler Clark
LB Darius Harris
LB Omari Cobb
LB Emmanuel Smith
CB Deandre Baker (2)
CB Chris Lammons
SS Rodney Clemons
QB Anthony Gordon
RB Derrick Gore
WR Darrius Shepherd (2)
WR Maurice Ffrench
WR Dalton Schoen
TE Jody Fortson
TE Evan Baylis (2)
OT Prince Tega Wanogho
OT Wyatt Miller
OC Darryl Williams
While the Chiefs might be able to posture themselves into having roughly $50m in cap space after re-signing Brown, I really don't see the financial room to retain a guy like Mathieu at the rate he wants with all of the roster spots open and other guys that need to be retained. There aren't many I see as "must resign" right now aside from Nnadi (Brown already accounted for) but there are going to be a lot of holes to fill (roughly half the team). The Chiefs have 36 players under contract for 2022 and at least 7 are unlikely to make the roster, which doesn't allocate much more than $2m per player. There isn't a lot of room for splash signings even with a lot of guys being vet min types. You're going to be able to get a few mid-level types to patch the major holes. As much as I like him, it's probably time to enjoy HB while he's here knowing he's not coming back.
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