By: Eric Galko
The first weekend of college football was not kind to many of the top quarterbacks around the country outside of Louisville’s Lamar Jackson. Wyoming’s Josh Allen was no exception, and maybe had the most frustrating performance of all.
Allen, entering the year with the most hype of any non-Power 5 conference quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger in 2003, boasts wowing arm talent and flashes on film that invoke words like “rare”, “special” and the always-coveted “elite.” But it’s time to temper the expectations for the Wyoming junior.
Allen, who certainly offers a high-end NFL skill set, struggled mightily against Iowa on Saturday. He led his offense to just one scoring drive in a 24-3 loss. Allen won’t be pleased with his technique, timing or turnovers in his debut game of the 2017 season either: He completed 23 of 40 passes for 174 yards and two interceptions.
Wyoming’s game plan against Iowa — likely determined in large part due to the departed players Wyoming lost this offseason to graduation and the NFL — was to restrict the passing game to horizontally stretching quick passes, especially early in the game. Those quick passes limited the vertical passing Allen has become known for, and ultimately put added pressure on him to succeed on third downs.
Allen was sacked three times on third-down attempts, finished just 4 for 7 on such plays and only converted a first down on four occasions, one of which was a run. That gives roughly a 36 percent first-down conversation rate. Last season, Allen finished with a 43 percent conversion rate, among the worst of any future NFL quarterback in the country a season ago. So his struggles on third down are nothing new.
More worrisome was his ineffectiveness in timing, anticipation, and decision-making on the perimeter. Allen, who has a loose cannon of an arm, knows he can make throws other quarterbacks can’t. But he far too often attempts throws no quarterback should attempt.
On the play below, Allen rushes to the right side rollout, and immediately has an idea where he wants to go on the perimeter. He rushes his footwork because he knows the window is closing, relies almost entirely on his arm, and forces a throw that likely put the game out of reach in the third quarter.
Allen will often get the “gunslinger” trait when his off-balanced, elite arm talent throws end up working out. But his decision-making and mental patience affect more of his game than just downfield throws. His mental process continually appears rushed, and the speed of the game against complete, quality defenses is repeatedly evident on film. This play is an inexcusable and lazy mistake.
Allen struggled against Iowa. His performance was inadequate, given the praise he has received this offseason.
But it wasn’t entirely bad, and it’s not entirely predictive of the type of quarterback he’ll be by season’s end.
It’s throws like the one below, despite the rushed footwork and timing on the throw, that NFL scouts immediately see translating to the NFL level. He throws it over 25 yards, off-balance, right on the money, with room for his receiver to cut upfield along the sideline after the first-down. It’s throws like this that get offensive coordinators excited. “If he can make plays like this WITHOUT my coaching, imagine what I can do when I have him for a full off-season.”
Allen may have already garnered an inaccurate comparison to Cam Newton, but as the season goes on, I’d imagine he begins to be compared to two former first-round picks with big arms, reckless playing style and ample excitement about their potential: Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger.
Mahomes, like Allen, didn’t boast a great winning percentage in college, and became known for similar improvised vertical throws that wow in the moment and excite on film. But Mahomes wasn’t appreciated enough during his time at Texas Tech for his ability to process the field mentally and grow far beyond the limitations of the Texas Tech offense.
Ben Roethlisberger has become the coveted comparison for any quarterback coming out of the draft, and many have received that label, deservedly or not, including Newton, Andrew Luck, Christian Hackenberg and Carson Wentz. But Allen has more than just elite size and a remarkably talented arm in common with Roethlisberger.
Just like Allen, Ben Roethlisberger had to travel to Iowa to play the Hawkeyes in his first game of what would be his final collegiate season. He, like Allen, played terribly, finishing with four interceptions and five sacks. Roethlisberger went on to win every one of his games after that en route to a 13-1 season, eventually becoming a top-15 pick in the 2004 NFL Draft.
Allen wasn’t a top-five quarterback on film for Optimum Scouting to start the year, and has plenty to prove still to merit consideration there.
NFL decision-makers are highly “intrigued” by Allen, but he’s far behind a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes in terms of mental process, timing, and patience. He has all the talent you’d want if you were building a quarterback from scratch, but he’s a ways away from being a quarterback you’d trust in the NFL.
Allen has time to recover for his team and NFL Draft projection’s sake, and he’ll have plenty of Mountain West teams to beat up on this year and wow with his arm strength. But with many enthusiastically eating up all the hype that Allen has been praised with this off-season, he has left a bad taste in the mouths of fans and NFL scouts across the country.