Quote:
Originally Posted by OKchiefs
I'm fine with getting top 3 picks, but "The draft is a crapshoot" excuse can't be accepted anymore. A lot of it is bad luck, but taking bums like Starling, Zimmer, Russell, Colon, etc. can't happen anymore. We HAVE to start hitting on picks or we're going to be stuck with shit teams for a long time. I'd argue that Moore has still never drafted a single true superstar talent in his tenure here. Moustakas and Hosmer have been good players, but neither is a top 20 type player. I'm happy with the success that we've had, but that was mostly a flash in the pan and not nearly the amount of sustainable success I would have liked. I think the current regime should be on the hot seat going forward.
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The current regime should absolutely face some pressure because of its draft record. Being about average in hitting on first round picks makes succeeding in Kansas City a tough proposition.
I think the 2010-2012 years were especially rough. Not much depth from those years.
Colon is a painful, painful miss considering Sale was their rumored preferred pick until about 15 min before the pick.
I think they’ve done much better in the past 2-3 drafts. 2013, they did a good job leveraging their draft position.
They have the most draft pool to spend this year, which should put KC in that more comfortable territory of pre-slotting... where they could give Wil Myers top 15 money in Round 3, or give Jake Junis second-round money in round 27.
They’ve done a great job in those types of setups in the past. Hopefully that continues.
They’ll have a top 10 pick next year almost certainly, which should mean another large pool.
And they have a nice complement of players at A and A+ in the minors. Add to that group with good drafts in 18 and 19, and you’re right back to where KC needs to be.
As far as drafting a superstar, that’s usually a matter of:
1) good draft position (its easy to get a superstar when you have 1 in a draft that has a legit superstar prospect or two or three).
Had the Royals lost one more game in 2008, they would have picked third and taken Manny Machado.
2) Luck (that prospect stays healthy and on track). Kyle Zimmer looked like an absolute superstar smash success ... until his body failed him.
3) good evaluation AND luck (identifying someone you can tweak slightly or project slightly and have them turn into a monster)
Bubba Starling and Mike Trout has nearly identical profiles coming into their drafts,
Though Starling was more highly regarded and had been a big success with the USA u18 team.
Getting Mike Trout in the middle of the First was luck. Knowing he has superstar tools was a matter of evaluation.