Quote:
Originally Posted by Megatron96
It's just entertainment. I've been gambling on football for a while now. Most years I either lose a little or break even. A few times I won a little by season's end.
For 2019-2020 I won more than I ever have before. I found a system that appears to work out fairly consistently about 8-9 weeks into the season and things just worked out. I have no illusions that I'll have the same success next season. It would be nice though.
The trick is to find one really solid bet and just put your money there. Most of the time parlays and prop bets are a bad idea. I've made out on a few of them, but lost the vast majority of them.
The other trick is not to chase the money. If you start thinking, "I have to win this bet/some bets to break even because I lost big last week," you're probably going to over-think it and screw yourself.
But yeah, the value in football betting is somewhere between the spreads and the O/Us. At least for me it is. Sometimes I'll break down a little further, and bet just the first half. For instance, a couple times this season the Chiefs played teams that started slow, so I bet that the Chiefs would beat the first half spread. So, like in the 2nd Raiders/Chiefs game, I bet that the Chiefs would beat the first half spread, which was something like -6. It took out the huge spread, and also eliminated the chance that the Chiefs would open up a big lead and then coast and let the Raiders get back close by playing prevent or whatever. I didn't win as much, but I won.
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I just put aside a little money for this season and consider it spent as a form of entertainment, then put a few bets on each week until the money is gone. Some parlays (16 leg "lottery ticket" parlays) for tiny stakes but mostly singles.
The only spot where I felt like I found good value last season was taking the spread on the under dog against conservative coaching. For example, Pete Carroll is incredibly conservative, the Seahawks didn't win by more than a touch down all season and yet 10 games into the season you could still find them being a more than touchdown spread favorite against the Cardinals.