Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
I've been circling around that thought for a couple of weeks now.
If that's on the table, you take it. There's a lot of solid talent through about pick 60 in this draft. If you get that deal made you have 4 picks in the top 63 selections. You can double-dip CB, find a versatile LBer and snag a WR in a very deep WR class.
I cite CB specifically because historically the production drop-offs for CBs is MASSIVE through the 1st and 2nd rounds. By the time you get to the 3rd round, you might as well wait for the 5th. They have steeper yield curves in the 1st and 2nd rounds than even QBs do. So if you can get a couple of CBs in the first round or 2, you're well ahead of the game in terms of projecting long-term success there. With the understanding that the Raiders and Broncos are going to be doubling down on building high-powered offenses to hang with Mahomes, you NEED to get that DB situation ironed out long-term. If you can get 2 CBs in a fairly deep CB draft, you're in amazing shape going forward.
Edge rushers, OTs and WRs show similar curves, if not as severe. In this WR class, using one of those 2nds on a WR could also be a big-time value play.
I've been awfully big on the idea of Murray in the 1st but man - LBs have yielded such scattershot returns out of the late 1st of late. Their curves are essentially flat; almost like RBs. The odds of hitting on a conventional off-ball LBer in the first round is only nominally better than on the third day.
Somone like Baun is technically a LB but not really used strictly in that sense so I think he could be compared to edge guys who tend to track more truly with their draft position.
So lets say you make that deal - this is a SUPER realistic draft scenario:
32: Baun, LB - Wisc.
34: Gladney, CB - TCU
44: Aiyuk, WR - ASU
63: Damon Arnette, CB - OSU
And yeah, you might have to game that a little and bump Gladney/Aiyuk with the hopes that Baun's most likely to fall to 44. Or maybe you like Pride at 63 more than Arnette or really like Terrell at CB and take him at 44 to change what WRs you're looking at at 63, but none of that is crazy-talk. You end up in a nice place either way. And with the cap space you've freed up you can go see what Javon Hargrave is going for or dabble somewhere else in an EXTREMELY deep free agent interior DL class. The rest goes into the kind of depth that a good team really needs to have around.
As for the Colts, they have a ton of cap space and aren't far from being able to win that division at all. They'll still have their first that they'll almost certainly use on a new QB who will allow them to maintain long-term cap flexibility. They can justify paying for him because of their cap space and pursuing him because of their ability to contend for the division as quickly as next year. And while the draft capital they would surrender would hurt, it would be palatable since they don't lose their 1st and can still go get a QBOTF if they see one they like (Fromm seems likely; Love not impossible).
This is a deal I just keep coming back to because man does it make a TON of sense for all side, including Chris Jones.
If this deal is on the table, you take it. And in the end all sides will benefit, IMO.
|
I like the return value, but yeesh those picks would leave us with Frank Clark, Tanoh for 1 more year and...?...an aging Okafor and Speaks?
I mean if we could keep Fuller and Ogbah and get that haul? Damn. Yeah I wouldn’t be mad at that at all. I do think we keep Chris, but I would not bitch at that return if Veach can pull that off.
One thing to keep in mind though. I’ve read rumors that Ballard is going to go hard after Shelby Harris, who is not Chris Jones, but he is good. I don’t see Ballard parting with draft picks like this when the market is strong at interior rush and he can pay a guy like Harris without giving up compensation.