Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace
Yeah, I didn't mean that literally. I only meant to illustrate that the difference between the stated death rates and reality is likely quite large.
Somewhere around 0.1% seems about in line with what I would expect, which is in line with death rates from the flu.
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Ok. Fair enough.
But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.
Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.
It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.
That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.
Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.