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Originally Posted by Chief Pagan
Ok. Fair enough.
But it is hard to talk about low probability but high consequence events without generating hysteria and then a backlash to the hysteria.
Coronavirus is new to humans. Nobody has any previous immunity. So the number of people who could contract it is way higher than the seasonal flu.
It is unlikely but still plausible that half the world’s population could contract it over the next year. Even a 0.1% fatality rate would be 4 million people.
That on top of the panic it would cause would be really serious.
Worst case scenarios should be calmly considered and contingency plans made as appropriate.
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But that's the whole issue - it's a low probability event that is getting a HUGE amount of media attention and is now bordering on causing mass hysteria. There's a chance we'll get hit by a massive asteroid in the next year and all of humanity will be wiped out. Don't think I'll change my vacation plans just yet, though.