[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Greg Gabriel: Is a quarterback's velocity an indicator of how good he will be in the NFL?

The Bears' former director of college scouting, Greg Gabriel has over 30 years of experience in NFL scouting and he'll be breaking down the top NFL prospects to watch this college season and other NFL news each week here at Pro Football Weekly. You can follow Greg on Twitter @greggabe

On recent days there has been a lot of chatter on Twitter about the throwing velocity of the quarterbacks at the annual Scouting Combine. What velocity measures is how fast the ball is moving once thrown. In other words, miles per hour.

Some of the results from the Combine were as follows:
Patrick Mahomes: 60 mph, Davis Webb: 59 mph, DeShone Kizer: 56 mph, Mitch Trubisky and Jerod Evans: 55 mph, Nate Peterman and Brad Kaaya: 53 mph and Deshaun Watson: 49 mph.

After these results were tweeted out, there were a number of other tweets saying things such as, “The minimal number a QB can have is 55" or, "Anyone with less than 55 will struggle to play in the NFL,” etc.

I found these tweets amusing, as the people who were posting these things don’t have any idea of what they are talking about. Why? The “velocity” stat has only been used for a few years and there is not nearly enough evidence to tell us a thing other than the miles per hour a quarterback's throw is traveling.

Ten years from now there may be some evidence, but today there is nothing. In fact when I asked some GMs and coaches around the league that I know about the stat they all agreed it was meaningless at this time as far as predicting anything. Again, not enough data.

Most if not all of the top quarterbacks in the league never had their velocity measured at the Combine. I guarantee you that some of the greatest of all-time would have “flunked’ the velocity test. Coming out of college Peyton Manning had a good, but not a great arm. Tom Brady actually had a bit less than a good arm and Drew Brees' arm strength coming out was below average at best.

How did we know this? We watched practice live and a lot of game tape. I was at a Purdue practice during Brees' final year and he struggled to complete a 12-yard out in windy conditions. I was at Peyton Manning’s Pro Day and in a scripted workout he showed far less than a cannon. One of the knocks on Brady coming out was he couldn’t “drive” the ball.

After each of these quarterbacks spent some time in the National Football League, their arm strength improved. In fact, not only did it improve, but it improved dramatically.

In many college programs, the quarterback is not forced to do much in the weight room. Once they get to the NFL, things change. If you want to keep your job and be able to compete, you have to do everything you can to improve. There are numerous exercises quarterbacks can do to improve their arm strength. These players look to improve grip strength, forearm strength and triceps strength. Improving those areas will improve the zip a quarterback has on the ball.

Yes, coaches and evaluators want a quarterback to have a strong arm, but they also want the player to throw a tight ball. In fact many believe “spin” is more important than outright arm strength. A strong-armed quarterback who doesn’t throw a tight ball will struggle in the wind. Likewise, a quarterback with an average arm can have success in the wind or cold if he can spin the ball properly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Okay, thanks, Mr. Gabriel.

So we're back again to this bullshit of, "Deshaun Watson will be fine because Drew Brees doesn't have a rocket arm..."

If you throw with less velocity, you've simply GOT to make up for it in other areas. You have to be far more precise with timing and anticipation. You have to be account for the windows you're throwing into being a lot smaller and more quick to close. And most importantly, your throws have got to be on the money ****ing accurate. It's gotta operate like a ****ing clock.

Yes, strong armed QBs have to do all that stuff, too, but they can get away with a lot more. In the 5% of times when perhaps they're not quite on the money or they have things mistimed, they're at least going to be far less likely to be picked or have the play disrupted.

Deshaun Watson with his current velocity and the accuracy I saw out of him in college is NOT Drew Brees. Not. Even. ****ing. Close. Watson's accuracy is pretty good on short-mid throws and even some long ones, but he's always good for a few throws that are just ****ing not even goddamn close. And even his throw-to-throw accuracy is just good... it's not deadly good. It's not Drew Brees good.

Greg Gabriel knows more about scouting QBs than I do, but he's not very good with making this argument about velocity. If he wants his opinion to have any ****ing real meaning or value in QB assessment, he needs to compare some guys who AREN'T Drew Brees or Tom Brady whose velocity isn't the greatest. He doesn't have to pick a noodle arm ass**** like Tyler Palko or anybody like that, but you can't just go, "Bullshit! It doesn't matter because Drew Brees can do it!"

The average weak-armed QB prospect doesn't have the things that Drew Brees has in order to become successful in the NFL.