Quote:
Originally Posted by DaFace
Yeah, that's what I'm concerned about as well. The highest estimates I've seen for NYC are in the 20-25% range. In theory, then, we'd need triple the number of deaths there to reach herd immunity. That's...not a fun thing to think about. Additionally, we'd have far further to go everywhere else.
If we were to 100% give up on social distancing and just say **** it in favor of going for herd immunity, we'd be talking about deaths in the millions even in the "best case" scenario.
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Are you referring to the NYC antibody estimates? Because those would be up to a month behind the current deaths and those results themselves are what, ten days old now? The testing ended April 22nd. So we can assume the people tested likely had been infected at the latest of April 5th or so to account for infection and subsequent antibody development. It’s unlikely any of those people were infected after that time. They could have been infected months ago as well.