Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Thought this was kindof an interesting take on Hosmer. Granted, I'm not vested in him and it mirrors my position but it may also be a little bit of salve for Royals fans in the likely event he leaves...
https://www.101sports.com/2017/11/16...on-vs-reality/
The thesis:
And he's right in the respect that there aren't a lot of people in the middle on him. He's one of the stranger, more polarizing FAs we've seen in awhile. I'd say Heyward was something similar in that people questioned if he was worth what his WAR says he is, what was his potential worth and just how valuable was his production since it oft lagged in traditional areas.
Heyward was obviously a gamble lost and Hosmer appears to be in a similar territory to me. |
Oh, I think he will, and I think the Royals could better allocate the overall funds it would take for him (unless they really can afford to sign both Hosmer and Moustakas), but I think Carlos Santana is an interesting comparison for Hosmer.
Santana has definitely benefited from playing in a great park for LH power while Hosmer has played in a park that saps power.
What would Santana's numbers look like playing at Kaufman Stafium full time? Well, over the past five years, the ESPN HR tracker shows that 25 of Santana's HR would not have left the K. Many of them would have been routine outs in right field. If you convert all of those to outs , Santana looks much different. He'll, just converting 15 makes him look a ton different.
The defensive first base metrics are also totally ****ed. I don't care what the stats guys say, if they can say something SO different from what all the scouts and players see (which is that Hosmer is an excellent defensive first baseman, particularly adept at scoops, stretches, and catches outside his normal radius, with quick feet and the ability to adjust), there's something wrong.
He definitely has some risk associated with him. I laugh a little when I see articles speculating that Hosmer could be convinced to change his swing to hit more fly balls (good luck with that. Better convince his brother the professional fireman to do it, or it isn't happening).
Those are just things that stand out from the counterpoints Miklasz presented.
That said, I'll take the 32nd pick in the MLB draft, and what I can buy with the 6-7 years of $21 million a year (for starters, I'm thinking Carlos Gomez and Logan Morrison on 2-3 year deals).