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https://theathletic.com/2238258/2020...b-this-season/

Advanced metrics reveal Patrick Mahomes’ steady improvement as a QB this season

By Seth Keysor

In 2018, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes took the NFL by storm. After racking up 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes, he led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game and was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player. It was one of the best statistical seasons in history for a quarterback.

After the season ended, I tried to contextualize how good Mahomes was in a way that quantified his actual play, going beyond the box scores by charting the things that matter most for an NFL quarterback, such as accuracy, pocket presence and making plays under duress. As a result, I was able to compare Mahomes to other elite quarterbacks in the game, as well as to Aaron Rodgers’ mythical 2011 season.

The result of that exhaustive film study was this: In 2018, Mahomes played at a significantly higher level than any other quarterback in the league and came mighty close to matching Rodgers’ 2011 output, which is often regarded as the highest level of quarterback play the league has ever seen. It was an incredible feat.

What’s even more incredible is that this season Mahomes is on pace to surpass both his charted numbers from the 2018 season and even the 2011 Rodgers numbers (which I pulled from his three best statistical games of the year).

Whoa!

First let’s take a deeper dive into what Mahomes did in 2018. If you’re unfamiliar with the methodology used, check out this detailed explanation about how I chart various aspects of actual quarterback play in order to separate what the signal-caller does from the rest of the offense, along with what they mean. These numbers are averaged throughout the 2018 season.



gain, I’d advise you check out the “Contextualizing Mahomes” article to get a frame of reference for how exceptional Mahomes’ 2018 season was. He was as accurate or even more so than his elite quarterback peers, and he created plays at a pace that lapped guys like Tom Brady and Drew Brees multiple times. He also rarely made mistakes. As a result, he was easily the best quarterback charted in 2018 (and that’s keeping in mind that I purposefully charted the best games of Brees, Brady and Russell Wilson for purposes of comparison).

The next step was looking at three of the best games of Rodgers’ hallowed 2011 season, in which Mahomes finally met his match.



Rodgers was able to narrowly beat Mahomes by having “happy feet” in the pocket fewer times and by throwing fewer potential interceptions per game, all while being slightly more accurate. In other words, while Mahomes created more yardage and made just as many spectacular plays, he made more mistakes than Rodgers at his absolute apex.

Now let’s fast-forward to this year and look at Mahomes’ charted numbers through 11 weeks.



There’s a lot to digest here, so let’s walk through some of the most relevant comparisons between Mahomes in 2020 and Mahomes in 2018.

Again, it should be noted that these measures are designed to separate Mahomes’ play from the rest of the offense and gauge what he does alone. Mahomes is creating just as many yards per game on average (almost identical, really). He’s also making nearly as many “franchise throws” per game, a difference that could be accounted for by the multiple blowouts the Chiefs have been a part of this year as opposed to 2018, when their defense often forced them to keep throwing the ball no matter how many points they scored.

It’s in the other areas where Mahomes’ improvement shows up. In 2020, his accuracy percentage has risen a full five percent from 2018, putting him well past what even Rodgers accomplished in 2011. Additionally, Mahomes has cut down on potential interceptions and missed receivers. His p0cket presence appears to be approximately the same on the surface, but it’s worth noting that of Mahomes’ “happy feet” snaps, the vast majority occurred in two games (Week 2 against the Chargers and Week 5 against the Raiders). Other than that, he has averaged less than one “happy feet” snap per game. In other words, even in the one area he appears to not have taken a large step forward, he has been more consistent.

So as the metrics show, Mahomes has been just as creative and spectacular as he was in 2018, carrying the offense down the field with incredible plays when it’s required.

But despite remaining highly aggressive and capable of making plays when necessary, Mahomes also has cut back on his mistakes and increased his accuracy to the point that he has become very efficient and even “safe” with the ball. He pushes the ball down the field, but also takes checkdowns at a higher rate (look at the increase in short throws), reflecting his shift to being more comfortable taking what the defense is giving him. He appears to be seeing the field more clearly than ever, and a lower percentage of his plays come on wild scrambles and bombs down the field — though he certainly can still do that whenever he needs to.

That improvement in processing and decision-making comes through with fewer potential picks and missed shots while making more accurate throws, particularly outside the pocket. The 2018 version of Mahomes cost himself some accuracy points by trying to go for the big play at almost every turn. But “2020 Mahomes” has learned that sometimes a 5-yard scramble or throw to pick up a fresh set of downs is the more valuable play.

Mahomes’ improved processing has also resulted in him throwing the ball with more anticipation than ever, not needing receivers to be open to start the throw. Instead, Mahomes sees where defenders and receivers are moving to on the field and puts the ball in the air with anticipation.



On this play, Mahomes sees that the Panthers are dropping back into a zone, with an intermediate defender in the middle of the field and a pair of safeties over the top. He knows that receiver Mecole Hardman is going to bring his route across the face of the deep safety, but there’s still the dropping defender in the middle of the field to think about. However, Mahomes accounts for this by throwing with the type of anticipation that’s almost spooky. Look at where Hardman is when Mahomes starts his throw.



The defender in the middle of the field sees that Mahomes is starting his throw, and naturally turns his body towards the receiver he believes will be targeted in order to try and cut off the route. But because Mahomes is starting to throw well before Hardman is to the spot he’s aiming for, the defender can’t get an accurate bead on where the throw is heading, so he’s moving the wrong direction to contest the pass. Which is exactly what Mahomes anticipated. That’s the sort of “beautiful mind” anticipation Mahomes has been showing this season, understanding what the defender will do before he does it and essentially throwing the ball at the future alignment of the defense he has already plotted out in his mind. In this case, it’s with the over-the-top safety being unable to come inside and the underneath defender running himself out of the play.



The future plays out exactly as Mahomes saw it happening, and the Chiefs pick up big yardage on a play that in theory is risky — as almost all downfield throws are — but in reality carries almost no risk because of where the ball is placed relative to where the defenders are moving.

Another area Mahomes has noticeably improved is in reading the field pre- and post-snap, both in identifying blitzes and coverages and going through his reads. The result of the former is that the ball is coming out on Mahomes’ first read a little more consistently as he correctly anticipates what the defense is throwing at him. The latter is more clearly evident when teams are able to cover his first few looks and he’s forced to scan the field. He does so much more quickly and with more defined footwork than he did in 2018.



Here, Mahomes starts off looking to the right side of the field at the intermediate level to check the coverage. Not liking what he sees, he shifts to a potential checkdown underneath. That option isn’t palatable either, so Mahomes shifts toward the middle of the field. There’s still nothing there, so Mahomes moves left and finds an open receiver, firing instantly for a first down. This all happens in about 2.5 seconds, and note that Mahomes’ feet follow him as he goes. This makes him ready to begin his motion as soon as he shifts to another portion of the field. That sort of “right, checkdown, middle, left” movement through reads is the sort of thing that the majority of NFL quarterbacks struggle to do efficiently, and it’s something Mahomes does more often and more quickly in 2020.

There’s also the issue of ball placement. While Mahomes was accurate in 2018, he’s taken it to another level in 2020 in terms of being able to place the ball wherever it needs to be on a given play.

Mahomes is on pace to top 5,000 yards again this season and to throw 43 touchdown passes. These basic stats are close to what he did in 2018. However, those numbers are slightly suppressed by multiple blowout wins and a defense that has performed at a higher level than it did in 2018, meaning the Chiefs haven’t had to keep their foot on the gas as frequently this season. His Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, a stat that incorporates completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, interceptions and sacks, is 8.98 this year, as opposed to 8.89 in 2018. This reflects his increased efficiency.

Beyond the box score, though, Mahomes has managed to do what many thought was impossible: become a consistently efficient and relatively low-risk player while still making plays at a high rate and maintaining his aggressive nature. He’s more accurate, quicker at diagnosing defenses and making better decisions than he did when he won the MVP Award, all while still being the best playmaker in the game.

In other words, he has blended everything that made him special immediately with the polish of a veteran quarterback.

He has truly morphed into a player without a weakness, and is currently playing not just the best football of his career, but the best football any quarterback has played. Considering he’s just entering his mid-20s, its doubtful he has reached his ceiling. And the question is no longer whether that ceiling is the best the league has ever seen, but just how much he can push the limits beyond what any other quarterback has ever done.