Quote:
Originally Posted by Buehler445
Why are you so convinced it will set back?
There wasn’t a massive setback after TARP and the subsequent QE.
Not necessarily saying I disagree, but the economy hasn’t responded the way I would think it would since the tech bubble burst. Well maybe 9/11.
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I think we hit a peak here in July-Sept. Market is rocketing so I think it could be sooner rather than later. I believe the Fed will stand at $9-$10 trillion (balance sheet) by the end of summer based on my calculations. The bust gets set into motion when the Fed steps off of the gas because of the growing discord of the Wall Street vs. Main Street debate near the end of summer. The debate will go mainstream and it will be that Wall Street got bailed out with trillions and Main Street got a couple of "measly" stimulus measures. The ****ing Feds are currently buying Bond ETFs as part of the last stimulus plan.
There will also be a false sense of complacency by the Fed that the mission has been accomplished, back at new record highs, and we are back to "normal." What they won't fully take into account is the exponential amount of leverage and complexity they have built into a system that was already showing major liquidity cracks back in 2019... All "pre-virus" too. When they take their foot of the gas it will set this deflationary unwind into motion. You also have the election unknown and likelihood of the reemergence of virus shutdown measures come later fall into the winter.