[Baby Lee]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.for...sumptions/amp/



This article says there would be a difference in infected and deaths with and without mitigation.

It's common sense

But those 'differences' are on two premises.

One realized, the avoidance of overburdening hospital facilities
One speculative, that 'something' will happen to mitigate the virus, vaccine, improved protocols, seasonal changes in transmissability, etc.

The gains we got from flattening are realized gains. And there's little to suggest that the speculative amelioration has made any progress.

You want to argue that we just need to hold on for a while longer, that's fine. But until we ACTUALLY OBSERVE ameliorative developments, whether it's a vaccine or a mutation, or whatever, we're not reducing anything further. Only prolonging. So be honest that 'a while longer' could indeed be 'a while longer'