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As DaFace has referenced in the past, they're essentially trying to predict the exact path of a hurricane.
I like to think of it as a snowstorm. (Just because have more experience tracking snow storms as opposed to hurricanes)
Let's say there's a massive snow storm showing up in the models, but it's 2 weeks away from hitting.
The range it is predicting is somewhere between 1 - 36 inches of snow. That's a big discrepancy.
As the storm gets closer to approaching, the models have more data to try and make a more accurate prediction. They're 100% confident the snowstorm will hit, but they still don't know how severe it will be. And to make matters worse, the models don't have a good idea of exactly how fast the storm is moving. It may hit us sooner than expected.
But wait... there's still a ton of variables that the humans feeding the models still don't understand. The model is only as good as the people feeding it information.
Now back to reality. We have learned a lifetime of information about this virus and how it behaves and impacts people and communities. We've learned this information in a very short period of time. Different studies come out almost daily. This all impacts how doctors, nurses, EMT's, healthcare workers, and the federal public respond. It appears the snowstorm is weakening a bit! But we can't be sure..
The snowstorm has already started, and it's obvious we're getting more than an inch of snow. Are we going to get the worst case of 36 inches of snow? Probably not. It's likely going to fall somewhere in the middle.
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