Quote:
Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy
True 100k - 240 k is still small % wise for a country w over 300 mil. It'll be rough but we will get through this.
|
If we lose 350K people, one out of every 1,000 people will die. And that will yield raw numbers beyond our comprehension but it will also won't be the whole "every last one of us will have loved ones die!" thing that far too many are preaching.
I don't know 1,000 people. And I probably only truly care about maybe 75.
This still comes down in large part to some level of fatalism for me. Suddenly everyone's saying "My god - 100K people are going to die; how can this be happening?"
Gimme 100K and I'd take it. Again, this is a novel virus that attacks our lungs and creates havoc on the systems of the elderly and compromised. The idea that we were going to spin clear of this w/ 15K dead was always just folly.
This disease is a mother****er. And it was always going to kill people - a lot of them. And it's not about liking that fact or endorsing it. It's about simply understanding it.
I feel like some of the biggest mistakes business, teachers, politicians, salesmen...just about anyone, ever makes come down to poor expectation management. And somehow we came out of the chute saying "flatten the curve and 1,000 people will die..."
Dafuq ever made that a reasonable projection for something like this? When this story is written, it'll involve tens of thousands dead and likely hundreds of thousands. And if there's a country w/ similar demographics/population who claims they'll have knocked it back at a few hundred...well their story just hasn't reached its conclusion yet. Or they're just flat lying.
As I said from the beginning, I still don't think the answer is hunkering down and hoping they run out of bullets. Sooner or later that will just make things worse. I look at Boone County now with NO meaningful spread and a mere 2 people who have been in the ICU from the jump. We've been locked in for a little over a week with all expectations being that this goes through Mid May. And then they'll slowly release people out into the wild.
And THEN the spread will start. And the odds of being able to put the clamps back on that population are damn near zero. Because 'flatten the curve' somehow evolved into "don't allow a curve at all", all we're going to create is spike further down the line.
And it will all be because people simply never had a reasonable expectation of what these outcomes were going to be. So we're making decisions that are in some ways likely to make the outcomes worse...just a little further down the road.